Week of 20 January 2025: a 10% Monday range shrinks to a 1.27% weekly gain
How should a week be read when a 10% range and a 5% hourly move both land on Monday, but the week closes flat near the bottom of that range?
BTC rose 1.27% (101,331.57 to 102,620.00) and ETH 0.54% (3,215.20 to 3,232.61). Both set their weekly low at 00:00 UTC and their high at 06:00 UTC on Monday 20 January. BTC closed in the lower part of its weekly range (close location 30.6%).
What the data shows. The whole range was built between the Monday 00:00 UTC hour and the 06:00 UTC hour. BTC's low of 99,550 came in the hour starting 00:00 UTC on Monday 20 January and its high of 109,588 in the hour starting 06:00 UTC, a 10.08% span. That same 06:00 hour carried the largest hourly move of the week for both assets: 5.02% for BTC and 3.79% for ETH. ETH's low, 3,142.78, sat in the Monday 00:00 hour as well, its high 3,453.69 at 06:00. After Monday, daily moves were ordinary: BTC's best day was Tuesday (+3.8%), its worst Wednesday (-2.3%); ETH's best Thursday (+2.95%), its worst Sunday (-2.6%). Volume ran 1.17 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.93 times for ETH. Weekly returns ranked at the 53rd percentile of 362 weeks for BTC and the 50th for ETH.
What it does not show. The candles record the size of Monday's move, not its cause. Nothing here identifies who traded or whether the reversal was forced liquidation or ordinary profit-taking. Funding data has no position sizes attached, so the amount of leverage behind the week cannot be measured. The data also cannot say whether the fade from 109,588 continued after Sunday.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 70.8% for BTC and 70.0% for ETH, against a weekly return under 1.3% for both. A position sized on the weekly return alone is mis-sized for a week containing a 5.02% hour. The close location value of 30.6% for BTC (28.9% for ETH) means both finished nearer their weekly lows than their highs, so the week's gain sits far from its best prices. BTC ended 5.26% below its 52-week high while ETH ended 20.9% below, a gap that a desk would track rather than assume will close.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0087% per eight hours, ranging from 0.0003% to 0.01%; ETH averaged 0.0093%, from 0.0038% to 0.01%. Longs paid shorts all week, but the amounts were small and the maximum never exceeded 0.01%.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes above the Monday high of 109,588, this week's fade reads as consolidation rather than a failed push.
- If ETH continues to lag BTC and the ETH/BTC ratio falls well past the -0.72% recorded here, the two-asset divergence becomes the story rather than a footnote.
- If funding holds near its 0.01% cap while price stays below the weekly high, longs are paying for a position that is not rising.
Terms
- close location value
- where the closing price sits inside the week's range; a low figure means the close sat nearer the weekly low than the high
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 53rd percentile means 53% of the 362 past weeks were lower