Week of 13 January 2025: Bitcoin gains 7.18% while Ether falls 1.60% in the same week
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over one week, how much of the gap came from a single day, and what does the divergence ask a desk to check?
BTC rose from 94,545.07 to 101,331.57 (+7.18%), its high arriving Sunday 19 January. ETH fell from 3,267.30 to 3,215.12 (-1.60%), its high coming earlier, on Friday 17 January. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 8.19%, and the two assets' hourly correlation was 0.72.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly low at the same hour: 14:00 UTC on Monday 13 January (BTC 89,256.69, ETH 2,920.00). From there they separated. BTC's high of 106,422.43 came late on Sunday 19 January at 20:00, while ETH's high of 3,525.72 arrived two days earlier, at 21:00 UTC on Friday 17 January. BTC closed in the upper third of its weekly range (70.3% of the 19.23% span from low to high); ETH closed mid-range (48.7% of its 20.74% span). Volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both, 1.08 times for BTC and 1.28 times for ETH. BTC's +7.18% ranked at the 79th percentile of 361 recorded weeks; ETH's -1.60% ranked at the 38th. Both took their largest hourly loss in the same late-Sunday hour: -2.44% for BTC and -4.28% for ETH, starting 21:00 UTC on 19 January. BTC's worst day was that Sunday (-3.08%); ETH's worst day was Saturday 18 January (-4.78%).
What it does not show. The data cannot say why the two assets diverged or who drove either move. Hourly correlation of 0.72 shows they tracked each other closely but not tightly, and the 8.19% fall in the ETH/BTC ratio shows ETH lagging, not a mechanism. The Sunday reversal does not say whether it continues.
What a careful desk would check. BTC at its close sat 6.4% below its 52-week high; ETH sat 21.33% below its own. ETH's realised volatility of 89.2% annualised was well above BTC's 56.3%, so a given position size carried more hourly risk in ETH. With both assets' worst hour arriving after Sunday's high, a desk would check whether Sunday's gains were held into the close and whether ETH hedges were sized on the ratio, not on the individual assets.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after this week's 8.19% drop, the divergence reads as a trend rather than a one-week rotation.
- If BTC trades back below its weekly open of 94,545.07, the 79th-percentile weekly gain was retraced and the reading weakens.
- If ETH recovers towards its Friday high of 3,525.72 while BTC stalls near 101,331.57, the gap narrows and the ratio stabilises.
- If another late-Sunday hour produces moves like -2.44% and -4.28%, hour-of-week risk becomes a standing check on weekend exposure.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 79th percentile means 79% of past weeks were lower
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, which shows which asset is gaining relative to the other