Week of 24 June 2024: Bitcoin slips 0.69% while Ether gains 0.50% after a Monday drop
After a sharp Monday fall, what does a close in the upper third of the week's range say about the week, and why did BTC and ETH end it moving apart?
BTC fell from 63,210.01 to 62,772.01 (-0.69%) while ETH rose from 3,420.91 to 3,438.16 (+0.50%). Monday 24 June carried BTC's worst day (-4.61%) and its low of 58,402, yet both assets closed in the upper third of their weekly ranges. Volume ran below the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. The week's loss for BTC was front-loaded. Monday 24 June was its worst day (-4.61%) and produced the weekly low of 58,402 at 20:00 UTC. The largest hourly move, -2.12%, came at 09:00 UTC that day, the same hour ETH set its low of 3,240. From there BTC recovered: the best day was Sunday 30 June (+2.93%), and the close sat at the 88th percentile of the week's range, in the upper third. ETH's path differed — its high of 3,487.7 came on Friday 28 June at 01:00 UTC, and its best day was Thursday 27 June (+2.33%). The two moved together but imperfectly (hourly correlation 0.79, labelled close), and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 1.21%, so ETH outperformed by 1.19 percentage points. Dollar volume was below the prior twelve-week average for both: 0.75 times for BTC, 0.65 for ETH. Both remain well below their 52-week highs, BTC by 14.69% and ETH by 15.48%.
What it does not show. The candles record where price went, not why. Nothing here identifies who sold on Monday or whether that selling was forced. Three of the four prior weeks were down for BTC and all four were down for ETH, so the recovery did not erase the slide. A close in the upper third shows where the week ended, not where the next week starts.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 41.7% for BTC and 42.1% for ETH. With volume below average, Monday's low may have formed in a thin book; a desk would test whether 58,402 holds on a revisit with normal volume, and would ask whether its stop distances accounted for a -2.12% hour arriving at 09:00 UTC on Monday.
Funding. Perpetual funding stayed positive and narrow: BTC averaged 0.0094% per eight hours (range 0.0059% to 0.01%) and ETH 0.0098% (0.0074% to 0.01%). Longs paid shorts, but each rate is small, which argues against heavy crowding on either side.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below 58,402 in a later week, Monday's low reads as a pause rather than a floor.
- If volume returns towards its twelve-week average while price holds above 58,402, the recovery gains credibility.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio rises further after this week's 1.21% gain, ETH's outperformance is becoming a pattern rather than one week.
- If funding holds near 0.009% while price stalls, longs are paying a small carry for a position that is no longer rising.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the closing price sat between the week's low and high; the 88th percentile means it closed above 88% of that span
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts