Week of 17 June 2024: both assets fall about 5% on below-average volume
When both assets fall about 5% in a week on thin volume and both close in the lower third of their ranges, how should that change a reading of the decline?
BTC fell from 66,676.86 to 63,210.01 (-5.20%) and ETH from 3,624.41 to 3,420.91 (-5.61%). Both closed in the lower third of their weekly ranges, and volume ran below the prior 12-week average. BTC sits 14.09% below its 52-week high, ETH 15.90% below.
What the data shows. The two assets fell together and slowly. BTC's high of 67,298.81 came on Monday 17 June at 18:00 UTC and its low of 63,178.32 at 23:00 UTC on Sunday 23 June, so the low arrived after the high and next to the close. ETH peaked in the week's first hour at 3,638.37 and reached its low of 3,355.00 on Tuesday 18 June at 01:00 UTC. The largest hourly moves were modest: -1.27% for BTC (Thursday 20 June, 13:00 UTC) and -1.85% for ETH (Tuesday 18 June, 01:00 UTC). Trading was quiet: BTC dollar volume of 10.12 billion was 0.67 times its prior 12-week average, and ETH's 7.11 billion was 0.81 times. Weekly returns ranked at the 19th percentile for BTC and the 23rd for ETH against 331 recorded weeks.
What it does not show. Thin volume with a drifting price does not say whether sellers were active or buyers simply stepped back. The data contains no order-book or open-interest figures, so the depth behind the decline cannot be measured, and nothing here identifies who traded or what came next.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility — the size of the swings that actually happened, scaled to a yearly figure — was 32.0% for BTC and 44.5% for ETH, in line with the small hourly moves. The prior four weeks were mixed for BTC (3.37%, -1.08%, 2.78%, -4.27%) and skewed down for ETH (24.59%, -1.19%, -1.97%, -2.21%). A desk would ask whether a week closing at the bottom of its range, on light volume, is the start of a leg or a pause inside a range.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding stayed positive, averaging 0.0073% per eight hours with a minimum of 0.0023%; ETH averaged 0.0066% with a minimum of 0.0007%. Longs paid a small carry all week while price fell.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below BTC's 63,178.32 low, this week's Sunday drift reads as the beginning of a further decline rather than a pause.
- If volume returns towards its prior 12-week average while price holds above the weekly low, the quiet decline looks more like consolidation.
- If funding turns negative while price keeps falling, the cost of holding longs reverses and the positioning picture changes.
- If ETH falls faster than BTC again — it lost 0.41 percentage points more this week and the ratio fell 0.44% — a broad decline is becoming a relative one.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between its low and its high; the lower third means it closed near the bottom of the week's range
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 19th percentile for BTC means a return this low appeared in only 19% of the 331 recorded weeks