Week of 15 April 2024: BTC swings 12.19% and ends 1.10% lower
When a week covers a wide range but closes near where it opened, what does that price path reveal about pressure, and what does it leave unresolved?
BTC fell from 65,661.85 to 64,941.15 (-1.10%) and ETH from 3,155.11 to 3,147.67 (-0.24%), despite ranges of 12.19% and 14.4%. Both hit their low at 02:00 UTC on Friday 19 April and recovered. Funding stayed near flat, averaging 0.0047% per eight hours for BTC.
What the data shows. BTC traded between 66,867.07 and 59,600.01, a 12.19% range, yet closed at 64,941.15, in the upper third of that range. ETH followed the same shape: its low of 2,865.18 came at the same hour, 02:00 UTC on Friday 19 April, and it closed at 3,147.67, also in the upper third. The largest hourly move for both assets came four hours later, at 06:00 UTC on Friday (4.11% for BTC, 3.43% for ETH). The week's highs came first: BTC's 66,867.07 at 09:00 UTC on Monday 15 April, ETH's 3,277.85 at 11:00 UTC the same day, both days before Friday's low. Three of the prior four weeks were down for both assets (BTC -1.73%, 6.06%, -2.69%, -5.33%), so this week extends a soft stretch rather than reversing it. BTC dollar volume was 19.78 billion, 1.01 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH's was 9.48 billion, 0.88 times that average. The two assets moved very closely hour by hour (correlation 0.90), and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 0.87%.
What it does not show. A close near the open after a wide range does not identify what drove the Friday slide or the recovery. The data contains no order-book or open-interest figures, so the size of any positioning behind the move cannot be measured. It also does not say whether the recovery held because buying returned or because selling stopped.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 67.5% for BTC and 74.3% for ETH, well above what a 1.10% weekly return alone would suggest. A position sized on the weekly return would be miscalibrated for a week whose hourly moves reached 4.11%. BTC ended 11.74% below its 52-week high and ETH 22.62% below, so both remain in a broader decline even after Friday's rebound.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0047% per eight hours, with a high of 0.01% and a low of -0.0033%. ETH funding averaged 0.0054%. These are near-flat rates: longs paid shorts a small amount on average, with little sign of crowding on either side.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 59,600.01 in a later week, Friday's slide reads as the start of a leg down rather than a shakeout that was absorbed.
- If BTC closes a later week back above 66,867.07, the recovery from the low gains more weight than the -1.10% weekly return suggests.
- If funding moves sharply above 0.01% while price stalls, the cost of holding longs rises at a point where the market is still 11.74% below its 52-week high.
- If ETH dollar volume stays at 0.88 times its prior twelve-week average or lower while the ETH/BTC ratio keeps rising, the relative strength may rest on thin activity.
Terms
- close location
- where the closing price sits within the week's high-to-low range, from the bottom to the top
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price