Week of 8 April 2024: BTC falls 5.33% and ETH 8.66%, lows in the same hour
When both assets fall for a second straight week and set their lows in the same late-Saturday hour, what does the week's structure say about the move, and what can it not say?
BTC fell from 69,360.38 to 65,661.84 (-5.33%) and ETH from 3,454.20 to 3,155.11 (-8.66%). Both weekly lows and both largest hourly moves landed at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 13 April. Ether lagged, with the ETH/BTC ratio down 3.51%.
What the data shows. The week opened near its top: BTC's high of 72,797.99 came at 12:00 UTC on Monday 8 April, and ETH's high of 3,730.71 followed the same day at 23:00 UTC. From there the week drifted lower, with both assets reaching their lows at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 13 April — BTC at 60,660.57 and ETH at 2,852.00. The largest hourly moves fell in that same hour: -4.59% for BTC and -5.63% for ETH, both late in the UTC day. BTC's worst day was Saturday (-4.76%); ETH's was Friday 12 April (-7.57%). Weekly ranges were wide, 20.01% for BTC and 30.81% for ETH, yet both closed in the middle third of their range (BTC 41.2%, ETH 34.5%). Dollar volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both (1.28x BTC, 1.35x ETH). The two assets moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.93), but ETH fell further, so the ETH/BTC ratio dropped 3.51%.
What it does not show. Prices record the path, not the cause. Nothing here identifies who was selling or whether selling was forced. The largest hourly moves on Saturday were -4.59% for BTC and -5.63% for ETH, and the data does not say whether that hour's selling was absorbed or marks a continuation. Both assets closed below their weekly opens but well above their lows, so the week's ending level does not settle the direction.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sat 10.76% below its 52-week high and ETH 22.44% below, after three down weeks in the prior four for both. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 72.0% for BTC and 96.0% for ETH. A position sized for a calmer week is likely too large; a desk would compare stop distances with the -4.59% and -5.63% hourly moves and ask whether exits could have been filled inside that Saturday hour.
Funding. Funding stayed positive all week: BTC averaged 0.0149% per eight hours (high 0.0352%), ETH 0.0131% (high 0.0319%). Longs were paying shorts throughout a falling week, a steady running cost that the price data alone does not capture.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below Saturday's lows of 60,660.57 (BTC) and 2,852.00 (ETH), the Saturday hour reads as the start of a further leg rather than a flush.
- If funding stays positive while price fails to regain the weekly opens of 69,360.38 and 3,454.20, longs keep paying for a position that is not rising.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio stops falling after a 3.51% weekly decline, Ether's extra weakness has paused rather than compounded.
- If volume returns towards the prior twelve-week average, this week's high activity reads as a distinct event rather than a new normal.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts