Week of 25 March 2024: Bitcoin rises 6.06% and Ether 5.51% on lighter volume
When both assets post a solid weekly gain on below-average volume and positive funding, what does the price path suggest about the move, and what can it not establish?
BTC rose from 67,210.00 to 71,280.01 (+6.06%) and ETH from 3,454.99 to 3,645.29 (+5.51%), with both lows on Monday 25 March and both closes in the upper third of the weekly range. Dollar volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both. BTC funding stayed positive, averaging 0.0284% per eight hours.
What the data shows. Both assets set their lows on Monday 25 March — BTC at 02:00 UTC (66,385.06) and ETH at 00:00 UTC (3,420.12) — and then advanced, a low-before-high path. BTC's high of 71,769.54 came Wednesday 27 March at 13:00 UTC; ETH reached its high of 3,678.86 a day earlier, Tuesday at 07:00 UTC. The best day was Monday for BTC (+3.97%) and Sunday 31 March for ETH (+3.98%). The worst days were mild: -1.31% for BTC on Friday and -2.40% for ETH on Wednesday. Both closed in the upper third of their ranges (BTC 90.9%, ETH 87.0%). The largest hourly move was +2.05% for BTC and +2.23% for ETH, both in the hour starting 14:00 UTC on Monday. Hourly correlation was 0.85, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 0.52%, so the two moved together with ETH slightly behind.
What it does not show. Dollar volume was 0.89 times BTC's prior twelve-week average and 0.95 times ETH's, so the rise came with less trading than the recent norm. The data cannot say why activity was lighter or which participants stood aside; it holds no open-interest or order-book figures, so positioning behind the move cannot be sized. Nor does it establish whether the close near the weekly highs will hold.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 42.3% for BTC and 47.9% for ETH. The weekly returns ranked at the 76th percentile of 319 weeks for BTC and the 67th for ETH: above average, not extreme. The prior four weeks held two up and two down for each asset (BTC 22.01%, 9.26%, -0.82%, -1.73%), so a desk would ask whether the move clears the prior range before reading it as trend, and whether sizing assumes this volatility level persists.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0284% per eight hours, with a high of 0.0436% and a floor of 0.0163%. ETH averaged 0.0322%, peaking at 0.0654% and bottoming at 0.011%. Positive funding means longs pay shorts; the cost was moderate but never turned negative during the week.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 66,385.06 in a later week, the Monday-to-Wednesday advance reads as a push that failed rather than a base.
- If volume rises back above its prior twelve-week average while price holds above the close of 71,280.01, the lighter participation behind this week's gain would be reversed.
- If funding stays positive while price stops advancing, longs keep paying to hold a position that is no longer rising.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio turns up from its -0.52% weekly change, the slight lag seen this week has become a leadership change.
Terms
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the closing price fell within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage