Week of 18 March 2024: Bitcoin ends down 1.73% after a 13.46% swing inside the week
When a weekly return looks small but prices swung 13.46% within it, what does the week say about risk that the closing number hides?
BTC fell from 68,393.47 to 67,209.99 (-1.73%) and ETH from 3,644.70 to 3,454.98 (-5.21%). Both hit their low at 05:00 UTC on Wednesday 20 March, then posted their best day of the week. Volume ran 1.57x (BTC) and 1.66x (ETH) the prior 12-week average.
What the data shows. The headline is a modest loss; the path was not. BTC traded between 68,956.00 on Monday 18 March at 05:00 UTC and 60,775.00 on Wednesday 20 March at 05:00 UTC, a range of 13.46%. ETH ranged 19.25%, from 3,645.02 to 3,056.56, and its high came in the first hour of Monday. Tuesday 19 March was the worst day for both (BTC -8.39%, ETH -10.28%); Wednesday 20 March was the best (BTC +9.53%, ETH +11.33%). The high preceded the low for both, so the week fell first and recovered second. Both closed in the upper third of their range (BTC 78.7%, ETH 67.7%), leaving BTC 8.65% below its 52-week high and ETH 15.06% below. Hourly correlation was 0.90, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 3.54%, so ETH fell further on the same path. Dollar volume was 26.66bn for BTC and 15.44bn for ETH, both above the prior 12-week average.
What it does not show. Higher volume records more turnover, not who was trading or why. The data cannot say whether Wednesday's rebound came from new buying or from short positions closing, and it cannot say whether the 60,775.00 low will hold. The prior four weeks were mixed for BTC (two up, two down) and mostly up for ETH (three up, one down).
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility (the size of the swings that happened, scaled to a yearly figure) was 71.8% for BTC and 93.3% for ETH. A -8.39% day followed by a +9.53% day inside one week means a stop placed at the weekly open could have been triggered and left the market before the recovery. This week's return ranked at the 31st percentile for BTC and the 25th for ETH against 318 weeks of history, so the closing figure is unremarkable even though the route was not.
Funding. Perpetual funding stayed positive all week, averaging 0.0172% per eight hours for BTC (range 0.0100% to 0.0306%) and 0.0177% for ETH. Long positions were paying short ones throughout, and the payment never turned negative.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 60,775.00 in a later week, Wednesday's +9.53% recovery reads as a bounce inside a decline rather than a base.
- If funding turns negative while the ETH/BTC ratio falls further from its -3.54% move, the relative weakness would look more like longs closing than ETH-specific selling.
- If volume falls back towards its prior 12-week average after 1.57x (BTC) and 1.66x (ETH), the midweek swing reads as a one-off turnover event rather than a lasting change.
Terms
- close location
- where the weekly close sits within the week's high-to-low range; 78.7% means near the top
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts