Week of 15 January 2024: Bitcoin and Ether close almost flat after swings of about 8%
When a week ends barely changed for both assets but the price moved about 8% within it, what does the shape of that week tell us about direction, and what does it leave unresolved?
BTC closed 41,580.33, down 0.36% on the week, and ETH closed 2,457.05, down 0.64%. Both ranged about 8% from low to high, with the weekly low arriving late on Friday 19 January. Trading volume was below the prior twelve-week average and funding held at 0.01% per eight hours.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 41,732.35 and closed at 41,580.33 (-0.36%). ETH opened at 2,472.87 and closed at 2,457.05 (-0.64%). Both set their weekly high at the same hour, 21:00 UTC on Tuesday 16 January: 43,578.01 for BTC and 2,614.43 for ETH. The highs came before the lows in both cases. BTC's low of 40,280 came at 17:00 UTC on Friday 19 January, the same hour as its largest one-hour move (2.09%); ETH's low of 2,415.2 came at 16:00 UTC that Friday. The week's range was 8.19% for BTC and 8.25% for ETH, yet BTC closed in the middle third of its range and ETH in the lower third. Volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both (0.87 for BTC, 0.91 for ETH).
What it does not show. A flat weekly close does not mean a quiet week, and it does not show whether the Friday move was the start of something or the end of a swing. The data names no cause and no participants. The weekly return percentiles (44 for BTC, 45 for ETH, against 309 weeks of history) describe where these returns sit among past weeks, not where price goes next.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 39.3% for BTC and 38.1% for ETH. Both highs and both lows came late in the UTC day (16:00-23:59), and the largest one-hour moves came there too, so a desk would ask whether its sizing and liquidity assumptions cover late-day hours rather than the quiet ones.
Ether against Bitcoin. The two moved closely (hourly correlation 0.86) and the ETH/BTC ratio changed -0.28%, matching ETH's -0.28 percentage point shortfall against BTC. BTC remained 14.39% below its 52-week high and ETH 9.19% below, so the two sat at different distances from their highs despite a shared weekly path.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's low of 40,280 for BTC, the Friday move reads as the start of a leg down rather than a swing inside a range.
- If volume returns above its prior twelve-week average while price breaks past 43,578.01, the quiet week reads as consolidation before a move.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling beyond -0.28% while correlation stays near 0.86, the shared path is turning into a relative one.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- weekly return percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower return; 44 means 44% of past weeks were lower
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset held up better