Week of 8 January 2024: Bitcoin falls 5.00% while Ether gains 11.32%, a 16-point split
When the two largest crypto assets move in opposite directions within one week, what does their price and volume data reveal about the split, and what can it not tell us about its cause?
BTC fell from 43,929.01 to 41,732.35 (-5.00%) while ETH rose from 2,221.42 to 2,472.87 (+11.32%), a 16.32 percentage-point gap. Hourly correlation was loose at 0.52 and the ETH/BTC ratio gained 17.18%. Volume for both ran about twice the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. The two assets barely shared a path. BTC peaked at 48,969.48 mid-day Thursday 11 January and its largest hourly move was a -3.68% drop in the following hour, then hit its low of 41,500.00 late Friday. ETH did the reverse: its low of 2,166.38 came early Monday and its high of 2,717.32 came mid-day Friday, so it climbed while BTC round-tripped. ETH's best day was Wednesday (+10.24%); BTC's worst was Friday (-7.67%). BTC closed in the lower third of its range (3.1%); ETH closed mid-range (55.6%). Weekly moves ranked at the 20th percentile for BTC and the 82nd for ETH across 308 weeks. Volume was 2.03 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 2.13 times for ETH.
What it does not show. The data records prices, not reasons. Nothing here identifies what drove one asset up and the other down, or who traded. A correlation of 0.52 describes how loosely the two moved together this week; it does not explain the split, and one week cannot say whether it persists. Funding held at 0.01% per eight hours for both assets, so no measurable payment imbalance appears on either side.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 74.4% for BTC and 78.2% for ETH, so both swung widely even though their directions differed. A desk would ask whether a BTC/ETH hedge held within hours: the largest hourly moves (+2.98% for ETH, -3.68% for BTC) landed on different days, so a same-hour hedge would have helped less than the weekly split suggests. Volume for both assets was well above the prior twelve-week average, but the data does not show whether that volume came from buying, selling or two-way turnover.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 17.18%. BTC closed 14.08% below its 52-week high, ETH 8.61%.
What would change this reading
- If BTC recovers above its weekly open of 43,929.01 while the ETH/BTC ratio holds its gain, the split reads as rotation rather than a one-off divergence.
- If ETH closes a later week below 2,166.38, this week's rise weakens as a signal of relative strength.
- If hourly correlation moves back towards a tighter reading, the two assets are trading more as one market again and relative-value hedges behave differently.
- If funding for either asset moves off its flat 0.01%, leverage is re-entering and the week's calm funding no longer describes the market.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past recorded weeks with a lower weekly return; a low percentile means most past weeks were stronger