Week of 25 December 2023: Ether rises 0.79% while Bitcoin falls 1.65%
When Bitcoin and Ether end a week in opposite directions while still moving closely hour by hour, what can the price record say about the gap between them, and what can it not settle?
BTC fell from 42,991.5 to 42,283.58 (-1.65%) while ETH rose from 2,264.04 to 2,281.87 (+0.79%), a gap of 2.44 percentage points. The ETH/BTC ratio gained 2.47%. Hourly correlation stayed close at 0.8, and funding remained positive for both assets all week.
What the data shows. The two assets ended the week in opposite directions. BTC lost 1.65% and ETH gained 0.79%, leaving ETH ahead by 2.44 percentage points and pushing the ETH/BTC ratio (Ether priced in Bitcoin) up 2.47%. They still moved together hour by hour: correlation 0.8, in the range labelled close. BTC reached its high of 43,802.32 at 13:00 UTC on Monday 25 December, in the middle of the UTC day, and made its low of 41,300.0 at 22:00 UTC on Friday 29 December. ETH reached its low of 2,178.45 at 17:00 UTC on Tuesday 26 December and its high of 2,445.8 at 01:00 UTC on Thursday 28 December. Both assets had their largest hourly move in the same hour, starting 15:00 UTC on Friday 29 December: -1.75% for BTC and -2.30% for ETH. Wednesday 27 December was the best day for both, +2.16% for BTC and +6.61% for ETH. BTC volume was 9.75bn dollars, 1.03 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume was 6.25bn dollars, 1.33 times its own.
What it does not show. The record shows a gap between the two prices, not its cause. Nothing here identifies who traded or why. Correlation of 0.8 describes co-movement, not a shared driver, and one week of divergence does not establish that the relationship has changed.
What a careful desk would check. ETH swung far more within the week: a range of 12.27% against BTC's 6.06%, and realised volatility (actual swings scaled to a yearly figure) of 48.7% against 35.1%. Both closed in the middle third of their weekly range, 39.3% for BTC and 38.7% for ETH, so neither finished near an extreme. The return ranks differ too: BTC's -1.65% sits at the 33rd percentile of the 306 weeks before it, ETH's +0.79% at the 51st.
Ether against Bitcoin. Funding (the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract) stayed positive all week: BTC averaged 0.0341% per eight hours with a range of 0.01% to 0.0552%, ETH averaged 0.0361% with a range of 0.0138% to 0.0571%. Long holders paid short holders throughout, in both assets.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps rising in later weeks, this week reads as the start of a relative move rather than a one-week gap.
- If a later week closes below this week's low of 41,300.0 for BTC, the Friday fall becomes the leading edge of a wider move.
- If hourly correlation falls while the ETH/BTC ratio rises, the two assets are separating rather than simply moving on different magnitudes.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the Ether price expressed in Bitcoin, showing which of the two assets gained against the other
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, measured from -1 to 1
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the week, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price near the spot price