Week of 18 December 2023: Bitcoin gains 3.91% and ends 3.45% below its 52-week high
When both assets rise together on above-average volume with funding mildly positive, what does the week's shape say about the durability of the move?
BTC rose from 41,374.64 to 42,991.50 (+3.91%) and ETH from 2,196.53 to 2,264.05 (+3.07%). Both set their low on Monday 18 December and their high on Friday 22 December, then closed in the middle third of the week's range. Volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 41,374.64, set its low of 40,542.93 at 10:00 UTC on Monday 18 December, and rose to a high of 44,398.26 at 06:00 UTC on Friday 22 December. The low came before the high, so the week's path was up. It closed at 42,991.50, a gain of 3.91%, in the middle third of a 9.51% range. Wednesday 20 December was the best day (+3.29%) and held the largest hourly move (+1.84% from 13:00 UTC). Sunday 24 December was the worst day for both assets (BTC -1.63%, ETH -1.91%). ETH gained 3.07% to 2,264.05, with a high of 2,343.15 on Friday at 14:00 UTC and a low of 2,116.60 on Monday at 10:00 UTC. The two moved closely (hourly correlation 0.82). Volume ran above the prior twelve-week average: 1.18 times for BTC ($10.57 billion) and 1.41 times for ETH ($6.22 billion).
What it does not show. The data gives no reason for the rise or for the fade from Friday's high. It does not say who was buying, or whether Sunday's loss extended into the following week. Positive funding shows longs paying shorts but not how large those positions were; no open-interest figures are present. BTC closed 3.45% below its 52-week high and ETH 5.0% below.
What a careful desk would check. The weekly return ranks at the 68th percentile of 305 recorded weeks for BTC and the 59th for ETH: a solid week, not an extreme one. Realised volatility, the size of the actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 42.7% for BTC and 52.2% for ETH. The four prior weeks read 0.23%, 6.74%, 9.55% and -5.51%, one of them down, so the gain arrived in a stretch that had been mostly positive. A desk would compare stop distances with the 9.51% BTC range and ask whether 1.18-times volume supports the move.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0176% per eight hours, with a floor of 0.0100% and a peak of 0.0308%. ETH averaged 0.0212%, peaking at 0.0511%. Positive funding means holders of long perpetual positions pay holders of short ones: a running cost that reduces a leveraged long's return even in a rising week.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades back above Friday's high of 44,398.26, the retreat from it reads as a pause rather than a turn.
- If BTC falls below this week's low of 40,542.93, the 3.91% weekly gain is undone and the reading flips.
- If funding stays positive while price stops advancing, longs keep paying for a position that is no longer rising.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further after this week's -0.80% change, the shared move is starting to split.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, scaled to a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 68th percentile means 68% of the 305 recorded weeks were lower