Week of 9 October 2023: both assets fall on below-average volume and near-flat funding
When prices drift lower on light trading activity and almost no funding pressure, what does the week actually reveal about direction, and what does it leave unresolved?
BTC fell from 27,917.06 to 27,154.15 (-2.73%) and ETH from 1,632.85 to 1,557.77 (-4.60%). Both assets set their highs on Monday and closed in the lower half of their weekly ranges. Dollar volume was 0.79 times BTC's prior 12-week average and 0.90 times ETH's.
What the data shows. Both markets opened near their weekly highs and spent the week declining. BTC reached 27,987.93 at 01:00 UTC on Monday 9 October and bottomed at 26,538.66 on Wednesday 11 October at 17:00 UTC, a range of 5.46% from low to high. ETH's high of 1,636.00 came at 03:00 UTC on Monday and its low of 1,521.00 on Thursday 12 October at 16:00 UTC, a range of 7.56%. The worst days were Wednesday for BTC (-1.88%) and Monday for ETH (-3.23%). Both assets moved closely (hourly correlation 0.81), but ETH fell further, so the ETH/BTC ratio dropped 1.92%. The return ranked at the 27th percentile of the 295 weeks on record, so this was a mild decline rather than an extreme one.
What it does not show. Price candles say how far the market moved, not why. The data cannot show who was trading or whether the decline reflected selling or simply thin buying. Volume was below its prior 12-week average for both assets (BTC 0.79 times, ETH 0.90 times), so the move occurred with less participation than in recent weeks; that limits what can be inferred about conviction.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 23.4% for BTC and 28.8% for ETH, both modest against the single largest hourly moves of -1.16% and -1.36%. BTC closed in the middle third of its range and ETH in the lower third, so ETH showed more weakness into the week's end. A desk would compare those closes with the pattern of the four prior weeks (BTC returns of 2.65%, -1.05%, 6.64% and -0.27%, two up and two down) to judge whether a trend is forming.
Funding. Perpetual funding averaged 0.0041% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0049% for ETH, with a minimum of -0.0015% recorded for BTC. These are near-flat rates, indicating no meaningful payment pressure between long and short holders during the week.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below BTC's low of 26,538.66, this week reads as the start of a decline rather than a pause.
- If volume returns above its prior 12-week average while price holds the weekly close of 27,154.15, the low-participation drift loses weight.
- If ETH continues to fall faster than BTC, the relative weakness seen in the -1.92% ratio change becomes a trend worth tracking separately.
- If funding moves well above the 0.01% per-eight-hour high seen this week, positioning is no longer neutral.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 27th percentile means 27% of past weeks were lower