Week of 2 October 2023: Bitcoin is flat at -0.27% while Ether loses 5.82%
When two assets that usually move together part ways over one week, how large is the gap, and what can a week of price data say about its cause?
BTC went nowhere: 27,992.58 to 27,917.05 (-0.27%). ETH fell from 1,733.80 to 1,632.84 (-5.82%) and closed in the lower third of its range. ETH underperformed by 5.55 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 5.57%, though hourly correlation stayed close at 0.85.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 27,992.58 and closed at 27,917.05 (-0.27%), inside a 5.23% range: a high of 28,580.00 at 14:00 UTC on Monday 2 October, a low of 27,160.50 at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday 3 October. ETH opened at 1,733.80, closed at 1,632.84 (-5.82%), and traded across a wider 8.54% range, from 1,744.00 on Monday morning to 1,606.73 at 15:00 UTC on Thursday 5 October. Both assets turned down on the same days: Monday 2 October was the worst for each (BTC -1.78%, ETH -4.12%) and Friday 6 October the best (+1.90%, +2.06%). Hourly correlation was 0.85, close by this desk's scale, so the two still travelled together; the difference is one of degree. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened, was similar for both (BTC 33.7%, ETH 32.7% annualised), so ETH's larger loss came from direction, not from wilder trading. Dollar volume was 1.04 times BTC's prior twelve-week average and 0.92 times ETH's.
What it does not show. The candles record where prices went, not why one asset fell further. Nothing here identifies who was selling ETH or whether the gap reflects position changes, seasonal flows or something else. ETH's close in the lower third of its weekly range is a location within the week, not a signal about the next one.
What a careful desk would check. The week ranked at the 46th percentile of 294 for BTC but the 23rd for ETH, so this was an ordinary week for one and a weak one for the other. The four prior weeks, oldest first, read -1.13%, 0.31%, -2.57% and 9.68% for ETH against -0.5%, 2.65%, -1.05% and 6.64% for BTC, so the most recent prior week was a strong gain for both, with ETH ahead (+9.68% against BTC's +6.64%). A desk would watch whether the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after a 5.57% drop.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0011% per eight hours, between -0.0043% and 0.0062% — close to zero, so neither side paid much to hold. ETH averaged 0.0055% and never went negative, with a low of 0.0% and a high of 0.01%, so longs paid shorts on average, with at least one period where no payment was made.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio stops falling after this week's -5.57%, the gap reads as a single week of divergence rather than a trend.
- If BTC closes a later week below its low of 27,160.50, this week's flat return reads as a pause inside a decline.
- If ETH funding stays positive at or above 0.0055% per eight hours while its price keeps falling, longs are paying to hold a losing side.
- If ETH outperforms BTC enough to reclaim the 5.55 percentage points given up this week, the divergence reverses and the ratio reading weakens.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 23rd percentile means 23% of the 294 weeks were weaker
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between its own weekly high and low