Week of 13 March 2023: Bitcoin posts its best weekly return in 265 weeks of history
When Bitcoin records its strongest weekly gain in over five years of history while Ether lags by 14 points, what does the week say about breadth, and what can it not say?
BTC rose from 21,998.05 to 27,972.87 (+27.16%), its highest weekly return in 265 weeks of history. ETH gained 12.68%, so the ETH/BTC ratio fell 11.39%. Dollar volume ran at 2.36 times the prior 12-week average for BTC, and funding stayed positive but small.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly low at the same hour, 09:00 UTC on Monday 13 March (BTC 21,813.88, ETH 1,565.00), and both highs arrived late in the week on Sunday 19 March. BTC then rose for most of the week without a down day worse than -1.78% (18 March), while ETH's best day came on Friday 17 March (+6.90%). The week's largest hourly move for BTC was +4.47% in the hour starting 14:00 UTC on Monday. BTC dollar volume was 95.44 billion, or 2.36 times its prior twelve-week average, and ETH dollar volume was 10.66 billion, or 2.21 times its prior twelve-week average. BTC closed in the upper third of its weekly range, 93.7% of the way up.
What it does not show. The data cannot say why the week rose or who was buying. Three of the four prior weeks were down for BTC (-2.96%, -4.77%, -1.93%), so the gain reversed a short decline, but nothing here tells us whether it continues. BTC was still 41.69% below its 52-week high at the close, and ETH 49.76% below its own, so one strong week does not erase the larger decline.
What a careful desk would check. A weekly return at the 100th percentile of 265 weeks is a rare observation, and realised volatility of 78.1% annualised for BTC shows the week was fast, not smooth. A desk would compare position sizing and stop distances against the 4.47% hourly move rather than a quiet week, and would note that ETH lagged by 14.48 percentage points, which changes how a paired position behaved.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding stayed positive all week, averaging 0.0119% per eight hours with a maximum of 0.0298%; ETH averaged 0.0110%. Longs paid shorts, but the rates are small compared with a 27.16% price move.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below the Monday low of 21,813.88, the strongest week in 265 reads as a spike that failed rather than a lasting reversal.
- If funding rises well above 0.0298% while price stalls, the cost of holding longs becomes a visible drag on an already crowded side.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio stops falling after its 11.39% drop, the week's Bitcoin leadership was temporary rather than a durable split.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 100th percentile means no prior week in the 265-week history was higher
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts