Weekly brief · week of 6 March 2023

Week of 6 March 2023: Bitcoin slips 1.93% while Ether gains 1.01% after a 16% midweek swing

When both assets fall hard midweek yet one finishes higher and both close near their highs, what does that divergence say about the week's risk and recovery?

BTC fell from 22,430.24 to 21,997.11 (-1.93%) while ETH rose from 1,564.57 to 1,580.33 (+1.01%). Both hit their lows at 10:00 UTC on Friday 10 March (BTC 19,549.09, ETH 1,368.39), then Sunday's best day (BTC +7.54%, ETH +7.36%) pulled both closes into the upper third of their weekly ranges.

What the data shows. The week opened near the top: BTC's high of 22,602.19 came at 15:00 UTC on Monday 6 March, and ETH's open was only 1.89% below its eventual high. The floor arrived at 10:00 UTC on Friday 10 March for both assets, giving BTC a 15.62% range and ETH a 16.5% one. The worst day was Thursday 9 March (BTC -6.18%, ETH -6.2%), which also held the largest hourly move, -3.54% for BTC and -4.94% for ETH in the hour starting 20:00 UTC. Sunday 12 March was the best day for both (BTC +7.54%, ETH +7.36%), and both closes sat in the upper third of their weekly ranges, at 80.2% for BTC and 93.9% for ETH. Volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both: 1.51 times for BTC (57.1 billion dollars) and 1.73 times for ETH (7.8 billion dollars).

What it does not show. The two assets moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.94) yet finished the week apart, with ETH outperforming by 2.94 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio rising 3.0%. The candles do not say why one held up better. They also do not identify who traded or whether Friday's low was a turning point; the data ends on Sunday.

What a careful desk would check. Both assets remain far below their 52-week highs, down 54.14% for BTC and 55.41% for ETH. This week's BTC return ranked at the 32nd percentile of 264 recorded weeks, ETH's at the 51st — an ordinary week by historical standards despite the intraweek range. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 60.7% for BTC and 71.4% for ETH. A desk would test whether stops sized for the prior three down weeks would have survived Thursday's hour.

Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.003% per eight hours, high 0.01%, low -0.0089%. ETH's averaged 0.0033%, with a high of 0.0091% and a low of -0.0083%. Rates near zero indicate little persistent payment between long and short holders.

What would change this reading

  • If a later week trades below Friday's low of 19,549.09 for BTC, the Sunday recovery reads as a bounce inside a continuing decline.
  • If the ETH/BTC ratio gain of 3.0% holds or extends, the divergence marks a change in which asset leads rather than a one-week fluke.
  • If funding moves well away from zero while price stays inside this week's range, positioning is building faster than price is moving.

Terms

realised volatility
how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
ETH/BTC ratio
the price of one Ether divided by the price of one Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
close location
where the closing price fell within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentile

Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.

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