Week of 5 September 2022: Bitcoin up 9.13%, Ether up 11.83%, both closing near the top
When both assets rally nearly in step but their funding rates and volumes point in opposite directions, what does that combination tell a careful reader?
BTC rose from 20,000.3 to 21,826.87 (+9.13%) and ETH from 1,579.29 to 1,766.11 (+11.83%), with both lows on Wednesday 7 September and highs on the weekend. BTC volume was 1.77 times its prior 12-week average, while ETH volume was 0.69 times. BTC funding averaged +0.0043% per eight hours; ETH funding averaged -0.0115%.
What the data shows. Both markets bottomed in the same hour: 18,510.77 for BTC and 1,490.66 for ETH at 02:00 UTC on Wednesday 7 September. The largest hourly move was a fall, -3.27% for BTC and -4.47% for ETH, both in the hour starting 17:00 UTC on Tuesday 6 September. From there the week climbed: BTC's best day was Friday 9 September (+10.56%) and its high of 21,860.0 came late on Sunday 11 September. ETH's high of 1,789.0 arrived Saturday 10 September at 23:00 UTC. Both closed in the upper third of their weekly ranges (BTC at the 99th percentile of the range, ETH at 92.3%). The weekly returns ranked at the 83rd and 81st percentiles of 238 recorded weeks. BTC volume was 1.77 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume was 0.69 times, so turnover moved in opposite directions across the two assets.
What it does not show. The candles do not explain why BTC turnover ran high while ETH turnover ran quiet, nor why ETH funding was negative while BTC funding was near zero. Both assets remain far below their 52-week highs (BTC -68.2%, ETH -63.56%), so this week does not by itself mark a change in the longer trend.
What a careful desk would check. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.47%, and hourly correlation was 0.82, which this data labels a close relationship. ETH gained more on the week, yet BTC's best single day (+10.56%) beat ETH's (+5.07%), and ETH's realised volatility was the higher of the two (75.7% against 57.0%) on a wider weekly range (20.01% against 18.09%), so the extra ETH gain did not come from a smoother path. A desk would verify whether ETH's thin volume makes its price move less reliable, and whether the Tuesday hourly drop would have triggered stops sized against the sharp swings of the prior weeks, which included -16.39% and -11.83% for ETH.
What would change this reading
- If BTC closes a later week below its weekly low of 18,510.77, the Wednesday reversal reads as a bounce inside a decline rather than a base.
- If ETH volume returns towards its prior 12-week average while its funding stays negative, the ETH outperformance gains a firmer footing.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls back after rising 2.47%, this week's relative strength was a short-term swing rather than a rotation.
Terms
- close location percentile
- where the weekly close sits between the week's low and high; a high reading means the close finished near the top of the range
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether divided by the price of Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- perpetual funding
- a periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts