Week of 8 August 2022: Ether gains 13.83% and beats Bitcoin by 8.95 points
When Ether rises far more than Bitcoin in the same week, does the price data show a lasting shift between the two assets, or only one week of difference?
BTC rose from 23,174.39 to 24,305.24 (+4.88%) and ETH from 1,700.2 to 1,935.31 (+13.83%), a gap of 8.95 percentage points. The ETH/BTC ratio gained 8.53%. Both assets bottomed at 00:00 UTC on Wednesday 10 August and topped at 07:00 UTC on Sunday 14 August.
What the data shows. The two assets moved together, with hourly correlation of 0.91, but Ether moved further. Both set their weekly low at 00:00 UTC on Wednesday 10 August and their weekly high at 07:00 UTC on Sunday 14 August, so the low came first and the week closed in the upper third of its range for both. The largest hourly move for each came in the hour starting 12:00 UTC on Wednesday 10 August: +3.72% for BTC and +6.78% for ETH. Wednesday was also the best day (BTC +3.47%, ETH +8.86%), while Tuesday 9 August was the worst (BTC -2.78%, ETH -4.18%). BTC dollar volume was 30.09 billion, 1.6 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume of 11.11 billion was about equal to its average. The week's return ranked at the 69th percentile of 234 weeks for BTC and the 86th for ETH.
What it does not show. The data records prices, not why they moved or who traded them. A one-week gap of 8.95 percentage points does not establish a lasting change in the relationship between the assets, and no measure of position size appears here. Ether's previous four weeks were all positive (14.57%, 19.35%, 5.03%, 1.32%), so this week extends a run rather than starting one.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the swings that actually occurred scaled to a yearly figure, was 50.9% for BTC and 78.0% for ETH. Positions sized on the Bitcoin figure would sit well inside Ether's wider movement: ETH ranged 22.53% from low to high against BTC's 10.51%. A desk would ask whether the wider range and the larger Wednesday hour fit its limits.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio gained 8.53% while the pair stayed very closely correlated. That combination says the difference came from scale of movement rather than a break in direction.
What would change this reading
- If ETH again beats BTC by a similar margin in a later week, the gap reads as a sustained relative move rather than one week of difference.
- If a later week trades below the ETH weekly low of 1,656.78, this week's outperformance looks less durable.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back most of its 8.53% gain while correlation stays near 0.91, the difference was a scale effect, not a change in trend.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the Ether price divided by the Bitcoin price; a rise means Ether gained value against Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts