Week of 1 August 2022: Ether rises 1.32% while Bitcoin falls 0.52% in the same week
When Bitcoin ends a week slightly lower but Ether ends higher and their prices still move closely together, what does the gap between them suggest about the week, and what can price data alone not decide?
BTC fell from 23,296.36 to 23,174.39 (-0.52%) while ETH rose from 1,678.12 to 1,700.19 (+1.32%), a gap of 1.84 percentage points. The ETH/BTC ratio gained 1.85%, yet hourly correlation held at 0.87. Both assets remained about 65% below their 52-week highs.
What the data shows. The week was quiet in direction but not in path. BTC traded inside a 5.57% range, setting its high of 23,647.68 at 12:00 UTC on Wednesday 3 August and its low of 22,400 at 18:00 UTC on Thursday 4 August. ETH swung further, with a 12.23% range, its low of 1,559.28 on Tuesday 2 August and its high of 1,749.93 at 00:00 UTC on Saturday 6 August. Both had their best day on 5 August (BTC +3.05%, ETH +8.01%). BTC closed in the middle third of its weekly range, ETH in the upper third. Realised volatility, the swings that actually occurred scaled to a yearly figure, was 45.6% for BTC and 70.2% for ETH. BTC dollar volume was 1.13 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH's was 0.73 times. The week's BTC return ranked at the 42nd percentile of 233 weeks, ETH's at the 52nd percentile.
What it does not show. The data records where prices went, not what moved them or who was trading. It gives no position sizes, so the reason for ETH's relative strength cannot be settled here.
What a careful desk would check. The two assets ended in opposite directions despite moving closely together hour by hour. A desk would test whether a hedge built on BTC would have absorbed ETH's 8.01% day on 5 August, and whether limits sized on BTC's 1.74% largest hourly move allow for ETH's 2.69%.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 1.85%, extending a run: ETH's prior four weekly returns were all positive (8.76%, 14.57%, 19.35%, 5.03%) against three up weeks for BTC (8.01%, -0.3%, 8.56%, 3.17%). ETH's higher volatility accompanied that gain. Funding stayed small, averaging 0.0049% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0061% for ETH, with lows of -0.004% and -0.003%.
What would change this reading
- If ETH outpaces BTC again in a later week while correlation stays near 0.87, the divergence this week reads as a continuing relative trend rather than one week's noise.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 1.85% gain, the week reads as a temporary gap between two markets moving together.
- If a later week closes below this week's BTC low of 22,400, the quiet weekly return masks a break in direction.
- If realised volatility rises well above 45.6% for BTC or 70.2% for ETH, the calm weekly moves of this week would look like the start of a tighter range, not a settled one.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually moved over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset gained relative to the other
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 42nd percentile means 42% of past weeks were lower