Week of 6 June 2022: Bitcoin falls 11.18% and Ether 20.56%, near the bottom of 225 weeks
When Bitcoin and Ether fall together in the same week but Ether falls almost twice as far, what does the gap between them tell a careful reader, and what can price data alone not explain?
BTC fell from 29,919.20 to 26,574.53 (-11.18%) and ETH from 1,806.22 to 1,434.84 (-20.56%). The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 10.56%, so this was a broad decline with Ether falling further. The weekly returns ranked at the 11th percentile for BTC and the 6th for ETH of 225 weeks, and volume ran above the prior 12-week average for both.
What the data shows. Both assets peaked early and slid all week. BTC's high of 31,765.64 came at 14:00 UTC on Monday 6 June, its best day (+4.86%); its low of 26,560.00 arrived at 23:00 UTC on Sunday 12 June, its worst day (-6.51%). ETH followed the same shape, with a Monday high of 1,920.00 and a Sunday low of 1,423.00. The largest hourly move for both came in the same hour, starting 00:00 UTC on Tuesday 7 June: -3.75% for BTC and -5.43% for ETH. Hourly correlation was 0.86, close but not locked, and the 10.56% fall in the ETH/BTC ratio shows Ether gave up ground to Bitcoin. Volume was 1.10 times the prior 12-week average for BTC and 1.21 times for ETH. Both closed near the bottom of their weekly ranges, with close-location values of 0.3 and 2.4, both labelled in the lower third of the week range.
What it does not show. Nothing in this data explains why the market moved. It does not identify who was selling or whether the selling was forced. The weekly return percentiles (11th for BTC, 6th for ETH out of 225 weeks) say how rare such weeks are historically, not what follows them. Ether's extra 9.38 percentage points of loss cannot be attributed to any cause from price and funding alone.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 71.9% for BTC and 103.5% for ETH. A position sized for a calmer week can be several times too large here, and a 5.43% single-hour move for ETH tests whether exits could be filled at all. The prior four weeks were already negative for ETH (four down) and mostly negative for BTC (three of four), so this week continued an existing decline rather than starting one. A desk would compare stop distances and margin buffers with this week's hourly moves rather than with the average week.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes back above this week's BTC open of 29,919.20 or ETH open of 1,806.22, this week reads as a leg down that was absorbed.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after a 10.56% weekly drop, Ether's underperformance is a trend rather than one week's divergence.
- If volume returns towards the prior 12-week average while prices stabilise, the week reads as a capitulation event; if volume stays elevated and prices keep falling, the decline has more participants behind it.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether measured in Bitcoin; a fall means Ether lost value against Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 6th percentile means only a small share of past weeks fell further