Week of 19 August 2019: Bitcoin ends 1.59% lower and Ether 4.00% lower on thin volume
When both assets fall on volume well below their recent average and close in the lower third of their weekly range, what does the week say about the balance of demand, and what can it not say?
BTC fell from 10,306.17 to 10,142.69 (-1.59%) and ETH from 194.32 to 186.54 (-4.00%). Both assets put in their best day on Monday 19 August and their worst on Wednesday 21 August. Dollar volume ran at 0.60 times BTC's and 0.43 times ETH's prior twelve-week averages.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 10,306.17, traded up to 10,949.96 at 00:00 UTC on Tuesday 20 August, then fell to a weekly low of 9,762.00 at 02:00 UTC on Thursday 22 August, a range of 12.17%. Monday 19 August was the best day for both assets (BTC +5.91%, ETH +4.10%) and Wednesday 21 August the worst (BTC -5.74%, ETH -4.63%). Both closed in the lower third of their weekly range (BTC 32.0%, ETH 29.1%). Trading activity was light: BTC dollar volume of $2.40 billion was 0.60 times its prior twelve-week average, and ETH's $0.29 billion was 0.43 times. BTC finished 27.35% below its 52-week high and ETH 47.87% below. The week's return sat at the 33rd percentile for BTC and the 39th for ETH across 79 weeks of history, so it was a below-average but not an extreme week.
What it does not show. Thin volume tells us fewer dollars changed hands, not why. The data cannot show whether demand withdrew or selling was simply light, and the closes in the lower third of the range describe location, not intent. The prior four weeks were mixed for BTC (-9.90%, 14.54%, 5.67%, -10.68%) and mostly negative for ETH (-6.15%, 4.83%, -2.42%, -10.20%), so this week extends an uneven pattern rather than confirming a clean trend.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility (the size of actual hourly swings, annualised) was 61.5% for BTC and 60.3% for ETH, with a largest hourly move of -2.65% (BTC, Wednesday 03:00 UTC) and -2.69% (ETH, Wednesday 12:00 UTC). A desk would ask whether its risk limits were calibrated on the more active prior weeks, since volume at 0.60 times the twelve-week average for BTC and 0.43 times for ETH can make a 12.17% range costlier to trade through.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes above BTC's weekly high of 10,949.96 on volume above $2.40 billion, this week reads as a quiet pullback rather than an established decline.
- If ETH continues to fall faster than BTC, the -2.46% move in the ETH/BTC ratio has become a trend rather than one week's divergence.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 9,762.00 while volume stays near 0.60 times its twelve-week average, the low-volume selling is persisting and bears watching.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as an annualised percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin; a falling ratio means Ether is weakening against Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 33rd percentile means 33% of past weeks were lower