Week of 12 August 2019: Bitcoin and Ether fall about 10% on below-average volume
When both assets lose roughly a tenth of their value on light trading, how much of the week's story is decline, and how much is simply an absence of buyers?
BTC fell from 11,539.08 to 10,306.78 (-10.68%) and ETH from 216.41 to 194.33 (-10.2%). Both weekly highs came in the week's first hour, and both lows arrived on Friday 16 August. Trading volume ran at 0.65 times BTC's and 0.39 times ETH's prior twelve-week averages.
What the data shows. The week began at its top: BTC's high of 11,577.89 and ETH's high of 216.81 both fell in the hour starting 00:00 UTC on Monday 12 August, within 0.34% (BTC) and 0.18% (ETH) of the opening prints. From there the two assets slid together, with an hourly correlation of 0.70, reaching their lows on Friday 16 August: 9,750.00 for BTC at 05:00 UTC and 178.04 for ETH at 08:00 UTC. The week's worst day was Wednesday 14 August for both (-7.74% BTC, -10.61% ETH), and ETH's largest hourly move, -4.80%, came in the hour starting 16:00 UTC that day. BTC's largest hourly move was a gain, +2.93%, in the hour starting 15:00 UTC on Friday. Both closes sat below the midpoint of their weekly ranges: BTC's close location was 30.5% and ETH's 42.0% of the range. Trading volume was below average, at 0.65 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.39 times for ETH. The weekly returns ranked at the 17th percentile for BTC and the 19th for ETH across 78 weeks of history.
What it does not show. Light volume is consistent with a decline driven by absent buying rather than heavy selling, but the data cannot separate the two. It identifies no cause, no participant, and no direction after Sunday. Funding rates were not available this week, so the cost of holding leveraged positions cannot be read here.
What a careful desk would check. A -10.68% week that ranks in the 17th percentile of 78 weeks is ordinary downside rather than extreme. Three of the four prior weeks were up for BTC (4.08%, 14.54% and 5.67%), so the loss partly retraced recent gains. A desk would ask whether stops set near the Monday highs could have been filled and whether light volume marks a slow drift or the start of a heavier move.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades back above this week's open of 11,539.08 in a later week, the decline reads as a pause rather than a turn.
- If volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while price holds near 10,306.78, the light-volume decline gains a firmer base.
- If ETH falls faster than BTC again, the ETH/BTC ratio's 0.53% rise this week reverses, and the two assets stop moving together.
- If a later week closes below this week's low of 9,750.00, Friday's bounce was a low-volume rebound rather than support.
Terms
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between the week's low and high; a low reading means the close was near the bottom
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; a low percentile means most past weeks were milder