Week of 13 May 2019: Ether gains 37.99% while Bitcoin rises 16.94%, both on heavy volume
When two crypto assets rise together in one week but one gains far more than the other, what does the week's data say about the size of the move and what does it leave unanswered?
BTC rose from 6,968.24 to 8,148.48 (+16.94%) and ETH from 188.07 to 259.51 (+37.99%). Both hit their weekly low in the first hour of Monday and closed in the upper third of their range. Volume ran 3.18 times (BTC) and 3.72 times (ETH) the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed at the week's open hour, 00:00 UTC on Monday 13 May, then advanced. BTC peaked at 8,366.00 on Tuesday 14 May at 08:00 UTC; ETH kept going until 279.76 on Thursday 16 May at 15:00 UTC, the same hour as its largest hourly move (+6.13%). BTC's largest hourly move, +4.34%, came earlier, in the hour starting 15:00 UTC on Monday. Both had their worst day on Friday 17 May (BTC -6.52%, ETH -7.58%), and both then had strong closes, with BTC posting its best day on Sunday 19 May at +12.28%. ETH's +37.99% ranked at the 98th percentile and BTC's +16.94% at the 91st percentile of the 65 weeks recorded before this one. The prior four weeks were up for BTC (2.43%, 0.95%, 8.77%, 20.68%), so this week extended a run rather than reversing one.
What it does not show. The two assets moved together but not as one: hourly correlation was 0.75, close but well short of a single trade. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 18.00%, so ETH gained relative to BTC, but the data cannot say whether that came from ETH strength, from BTC lagging, or from both. Nothing in the candles says who was buying or whether the buying was leveraged. The data has no open-interest or order-book figures. It also stops at the week's close: BTC ended 4.81% below its 52-week high while ETH remained 64.11% below its own.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 110.8% for BTC and 165.4% for ETH. ETH's 50.96% low-to-high range and its 98th-percentile return are the week's measured facts; how they compare with a given desk's own sizing assumptions is not visible here. A desk would also compare its risk limits with Friday's daily falls of -6.52% (BTC) and -7.58% (ETH), the worst day of the week for both.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio holds its 18.00% gain in later weeks, this week marks a change in relative leadership rather than a one-week catch-up.
- If BTC trades back towards its weekly open of 6,968.24, the +12.28% Sunday reads as the end of a burst rather than a new range.
- If volume falls back towards its prior twelve-week average, this week's price levels were built on unusual activity and carry less weight.
- If ETH closes below its weekly low of 185.32, the 64.11% gap to its 52-week high remains the dominant fact about it.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 98th percentile means only 2% of past weeks were stronger
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin, which rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin