Week of 6 May 2019: Bitcoin gains 20.68%, ranking in the 95th percentile of 64 weeks
When Bitcoin has one of its strongest weeks in the 64 weeks recorded while Ether lags and the two correlate weakly, what does the shape of the week say about the move's durability?
BTC rose from 5,773.18 to 6,967.31 (+20.68%), a 95th-percentile week out of 64. ETH gained 15.37% (163.05 to 188.11), 5.31 points less. Hourly correlation between the two was only 0.55, and Sunday closed below BTC's high of 7,521.78.
What the data shows. BTC printed its weekly low of 5,619.14 at 07:00 UTC on Monday 6 May, just below the open of 5,773.18, then climbed to 7,521.78 by 08:00 UTC on Sunday 12 May — a 33.86% range from low to high. The bulk of the gain concentrated late: Saturday 11 May was the best day for both assets (BTC +11.0%, ETH +9.99%). Dollar volume reached 2.04bn for BTC, 2.05 times the prior twelve-week average, and 0.71bn for ETH, 1.76 times its average. The weekly return ranked at the 95th percentile of the 64 weeks recorded before it, and the four prior weeks were mixed (-0.75%, 2.43%, 0.95%, 8.77%).
What it does not show. The data cannot explain the move or identify who was buying. Volume at twice the norm confirms activity, not its source or its intent. The final day hints at a turn: Sunday 12 May was the worst day for BTC (-1.54%) and carried the week's largest hourly move (-2.65% at 14:00 UTC), leaving the close well below the weekly high even with a close-location reading of 70.9%. That is one day of evidence, not a reversal.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sits 20.87% below its 52-week high, so a 20.68% week recovers a large share of remaining ground quickly. Realised volatility of 73.2% for BTC and 108.8% for ETH means ETH swung about 1.5 times as much as BTC over the week. The Sunday high and subsequent fade are the level to watch: a later close back above 7,521.78 would keep the week's strength intact, while a move below 5,619.14 would erase it.
Ether against Bitcoin. The two did not move as one. Hourly correlation — how closely the two prices tracked each other hour by hour — was 0.55, and the ETH/BTC ratio, the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, changed by -4.4%. ETH was 74.47% below its own 52-week high, while BTC was 20.87% below its 52-week high. ETH's prior four weeks were -4.05%, 0.83%, -6.37% and 3.29%. This reads as a Bitcoin-led week, with ETH following in direction but not in strength or timing.
What would change this reading
- If BTC holds above its weekly open of 5,773.18 in later weeks, the 95th-percentile gain reads as a durable shift rather than a spike.
- If BTC trades below 5,619.14, the entire weekly gain is gone and the volume surge marks a distribution week instead.
- If ETH/BTC stops falling after the -4.4% ratio change, the lagging side is catching up and the Bitcoin-led reading weakens.
- If BTC cannot reclaim 7,521.78, Sunday's -2.65% hour and -1.54% day stand as the first sign that the top of the week held.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a smaller value; the 95th percentile means 95% of the 64 prior weeks were lower
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which of the two is gaining relative to the other