Week of 19 November 2018: Bitcoin falls 27.84% and Ether 33.72% from the week's opening hour
When a whole week of losses begins in the very first hour and ends near the bottom of the range, what does that pattern say about who was in control of the market?
BTC fell from 5,661.94 to 4,085.78 (-27.84%) and ETH from 179.04 to 118.67 (-33.72%). Both weekly highs came at 00:00 UTC on Monday 19 November and both lows at 10:00 UTC on Sunday 25 November. The week's return sat at the 0th percentile of the 40 weeks recorded before it for BTC and the 2nd percentile for ETH.
What the data shows. The week's high was its opening: BTC's high of 5,664.0 arrived at 00:00 UTC on Monday, only 0.04% above the open. ETH's high of 179.33 came at the same hour. Prices then slid to lows of 3,652.66 for BTC and 102.95 for ETH at 10:00 UTC on Sunday, a range of 55.07% for BTC and 74.19% for ETH. Both closed in the lower third of that range (21.5% and 20.6%). Monday 19 November was the worst day for both (-13.28% BTC, -15.77% ETH), and the four weeks before had already been weak for BTC (-1.52%, -0.06%, -0.56%, -12.23%). Dollar volume was 1.80 times its prior twelve-week average for BTC and 1.26 times for ETH.
What it does not show. Price data cannot say what caused the decline or who was selling. It also cannot say whether Sunday's low was final: the best days, 3.87% for BTC on 25 November and 3.4% for ETH on 21 November, sit inside the fall and prove nothing about direction after the week ends.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the swings actually recorded scaled to a yearly figure, reached 135.7% for BTC and 160.4% for ETH. A desk sizing positions on calmer weeks would find limits too loose here, and would compare stop distances with BTC's largest hourly move, -6.13% at 21:00 UTC on Saturday 24 November, and ETH's, +5.44% at 14:00 UTC on Tuesday 20 November.
Ether against Bitcoin. The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.90), yet ETH fell 5.88 percentage points more, and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped 8.15%. The larger move was in ETH, so the fall carried a relative component as well as a shared one.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes above this week's open of 5,661.94 for BTC, the week reads as a shock absorbed rather than a continuing decline.
- If ETH keeps falling faster than BTC and the ETH/BTC ratio drops beyond 8.15%, the relative weakness is extending rather than correcting.
- If volume falls back below its prior 12-week average while price stabilises near 4,085.78, the selling pressure may be easing.
- If either asset trades below this week's low of 3,652.66 (BTC) or 102.95 (ETH), the Sunday low was a pause rather than a turn.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the week, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset held value better
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 0th percentile means no recorded week was lower