Week of 12 November 2018: Bitcoin falls 12.23% and Ether 15.82% on below-average volume
When two assets fall double digits in one week but trade less than usual, what does the price action show, and what does the thin volume leave unresolved?
BTC fell from 6,450.71 to 5,662.00 (-12.23%) and ETH from 212.60 to 178.97 (-15.82%). Both hit their lows at 14:00 UTC on Thursday 15 November. Volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both, at 0.92 times for BTC and 0.62 times for ETH, with dollar volume of 1.19 billion for BTC and 0.30 billion for ETH.
What the data shows. BTC reached its high of 6,498.00 at 18:00 UTC on Tuesday 13 November, late in the UTC day, and ETH set its high of 214.22 in the opening hour of Monday. Both lows arrived together, at 14:00 UTC on Thursday 15 November (BTC 5,403.42, ETH 170.99), one hour before the largest hourly move of the week: 5.03% for BTC and 5.55% for ETH in the hour starting 15:00 UTC. Wednesday 14 November was the worst day for both (-8.31% BTC, -10.68% ETH); Sunday 18 November was the best (+0.56%, +1.57%). Both closed in the lower third of their weekly ranges (23.6% and 18.5%). Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 75.9% for BTC and 91.4% for ETH.
What it does not show. Volume was 0.92 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.62 times for ETH, so the decline happened with less trading than usual. Thin volume does not tell us whether sellers were few or buyers were absent, and it does not tell us whether the Thursday low was a turning point. The two assets moved together (hourly correlation 0.83, a close reading), but nothing here identifies who traded or why.
What a careful desk would check. These weekly returns sit at the 18th percentile for BTC and the 15th for ETH across 39 weeks of history — a short baseline, so the percentile carries little weight. The prior four weeks were mixed but mostly small for BTC (3.96%, -1.52%, -0.06%, -0.56%), with three down and one up, so the fall followed a stretch of contained moves. A desk would compare the 5.03% hourly move against its own stop spacing and ask whether positions sized on those calmer weeks could have been exited inside Thursday's hour.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH fell 3.59 percentage points more than BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio, the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, dropped 4.09%. ETH also sat 84.56% below its 52-week high against 51.71% for BTC, so the two assets ended the week at different distances from their own prior-year peaks.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below 5,403.42 for BTC or 170.99 for ETH, the Thursday low was a pause rather than a floor.
- If volume returns above the prior twelve-week average while price stays under the weekly open of 6,450.71, the decline is attracting participation.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further after this week's 4.09% drop, the weakness is becoming specific to Ether rather than broad.
- If either asset recovers its weekly high (6,498.00 BTC, 214.22 ETH) on ordinary volume, the lower-third close reads as transient.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- close location
- where the closing price sits between the week's low and high, as a percentage