Week of 29 December 2025: Bitcoin and Ether rise on less than half their usual volume
When both assets rise into the upper third of their weekly range on less than half their usual dollar volume, what is the week actually telling a trader?
BTC gained 4.07% to 91,529.73 and ETH 6.57% to 3,144.70, both closing in the upper third of their weekly ranges after a shared low on Monday 29 December. Dollar volume ran at roughly half the prior twelve-week average for both, and funding stayed near zero.
What the data shows. BTC rose from 87,952.71 to 91,529.73 (+4.07%) and ETH from 2,950.91 to 3,144.70 (+6.57%). Both assets set their weekly low at 12:00 UTC on Monday 29 December and their high on Sunday 4 January (BTC 91,810.00 at 06:00, ETH 3,167.22 at 00:00), so the week traced a slow climb from low to high rather than a shock. Both closed in the upper third of their range (BTC at 94.4%, ETH at 91.2%). ETH outperformed by 2.5 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.4%. The two moved closely but not in lockstep (hourly correlation 0.84). The largest hourly moves were small: -1.62% for BTC at 09:00 UTC Monday and +1.48% for ETH at 16:00 UTC Friday. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 26.8% for BTC and 31.8% for ETH.
What it does not show. Dollar volume reached 0.49 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.44 for ETH, less than half of normal. A rise on thin volume carries less information: the data cannot say whether buyers were active or sellers simply stepped aside. The return ranked at the 70th percentile for BTC and 72nd for ETH against 411 weeks of history, better than a typical week but far from the sample's extremes. Both assets remain well below their 52-week highs, by 27.36% (BTC) and 36.28% (ETH).
What a careful desk would check. The four preceding weeks were mixed for BTC (0.04%, -2.46%, 0.55%, -0.80%), two up and two down, so this week changes the immediate tone without establishing a direction. A desk would watch whether volume recovers towards its twelve-week average while price holds above the weekly low of 86,806.50 for BTC and 2,910.25 for ETH, and would treat the Sunday highs as the level a retest has to answer.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0059% per eight hours, with a high of 0.01% and a low of 0.0011%. ETH averaged 0.005%, dipping to -0.0015% at one point. Longs paid shorts, but the amounts were too small to signal crowded positioning in either direction.
What would change this reading
- If BTC dollar volume returns towards its twelve-week average while price holds above 86,806.50, the weekly gain gains information.
- If a later week closes below 86,806.50, this week's climb reads as a low-volume drift rather than a turning point.
- If funding rises well above the week's 0.01% per eight hours while price stalls near 91,810.00, longs are paying for a position that has stopped rising.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps rising beyond this week's 2.4%, the two assets are separating rather than moving together, which changes which hedge matters.
Terms
- close location
- where the closing price sits inside the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage from the low
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 70th percentile means 70% of the prior 411 weeks were lower