Week of 14 July 2025: ETH gains 26.4% while BTC slips 1.53%
When the two largest crypto assets move in opposite directions in one week, what does the size of the gap say about how they are actually trading together?
BTC fell 1.53% while ETH rose 26.4%, a gap of 27.93 percentage points, and the two did not move in the same direction. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 97th percentile of 387 recorded weeks. Both traded above their prior 12-week average dollar volume.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 119,086.65, set its high of 123,218.00 early Monday at 07:00 UTC, then fell to its low of 115,736.92 on Tuesday 15 July at 14:00 UTC, the same hour as its largest hourly move (-1.76%). It closed at 117,265.12, in the lower third of its 6.46% range. ETH took the other path: its low of 2,932.46 came early Tuesday at 03:00 UTC, its high of 3,824.56 on Sunday 20 July at 16:00 UTC, and it closed at 3,756.69, in the upper third of a 30.42% range. ETH's best day, 16 July, added 7.44%, and even its worst day was +1.27%. Dollar volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both: 1.24 times for BTC, 2.06 times for ETH.
What it does not show. An hourly correlation of 0.62 marks a loose week for the pair. It cannot say whether funds moved out of BTC into ETH, or whether separate flows drove each. The data has no open interest, order book or counterparty detail, so it identifies neither who was buying ETH nor whether the position was leveraged. It also says nothing about what came next.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 66.9% against BTC's 33.9%. The largest hourly move for both landed in the same Tuesday 14:00 UTC hour, so one sharp down hour was shared even as the weeks diverged. ETH sits 8.07% below its 52-week high and BTC 4.46% below. A desk would ask whether the ETH move is a recovery inside a range or a change of trend, and would size against a 30.42% weekly range rather than BTC's 6.46%.
Funding. Funding stayed positive and small for both, averaging 0.0099% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0094% for ETH, with ETH's low at 0.001%. Longs paid shorts a modest amount; the rate does not reveal how large those positions were.
What would change this reading
- If ETH holds above its weekly open of 2,972.03 in later weeks while BTC stays below 119,086.65, this week reads as a durable shift rather than a one-week rotation.
- If hourly correlation returns towards 1, a repeat of the 28.36% ETH/BTC ratio gain becomes harder to sustain.
- If ETH closes a later week below 3,756.69 while funding stays positive, longs that paid are holding a position that stopped rising.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 115,736.92, the flat week reads as a pause inside a decline.
Terms
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1; below 0.7 is a loose link
- return percentile
- the share of past weeks with a smaller return; the 97th percentile means 97% of the 387 weeks were weaker
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rose 28.36% this week, meaning ETH outperformed