Week of 31 March 2025: Bitcoin falls 4.81% and Ether 12.56%, both closing near weekly lows
When both assets fall for a week on below-average volume and close near their lows, how much of the decline is a single bad day, and how should that shape risk limits?
BTC fell from 82,390 to 78,430 (-4.81%) and ETH from 1,807.74 to 1,580.76 (-12.56%). Both reached highs on Wednesday 2 April and lows on Sunday 6 April, when BTC lost 6.11% and ETH 12.47% in one day. Dollar volume ran at 0.78x the prior 12-week average for BTC and 0.64x for ETH.
What the data shows. Both assets rose early: the best day for BTC was 1 April (+3.16%) and for ETH (+4.53%), and both weekly highs arrived at 20:00 UTC on Wednesday 2 April. From there the week turned down, and both weekly lows came at 23:00 UTC on Sunday 6 April, the last hour of the week. The largest hourly move for BTC (-2.40%) also came on Wednesday 2 April at 22:00 UTC, while ETH's largest (-3.95%) came on Sunday 6 April at 18:00 UTC. Weekly ranges were wide relative to the net weekly move: BTC's range from low to high was 14.71% against a -4.81% weekly return, and ETH's was 27.28% against -12.56%. Both closed in the lower third of their ranges. Trading activity was lighter than normal: dollar volume was 0.78 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.64 times for ETH.
What it does not show. Volume below the recent average tells us fewer dollars changed hands, not why prices fell or whether the selling was forced. The data identifies no cause and no counterparties. Both assets fell together (hourly correlation 0.89), so this reads as a broad move, but ETH fell harder and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped 8.14%.
What a careful desk would check. The weekly returns ranked at the 19th percentile for BTC and 9th for ETH across 372 weeks, so the week was weak but not rare. Realised volatility, the size of actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 53.1% for BTC and 79.8% for ETH. A position sized for lighter weeks may be too large when single days move 6.11% and 12.47%.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH sat 61.32% below its 52-week high against 27.59% for BTC, and it fell 7.75 percentage points more this week. Funding stayed close to flat for both (BTC +0.0037%, ETH +0.0021% per eight hours), so neither side was paying meaningfully to hold.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below this week's low of 77,153.83 for BTC or 1,537.5 for ETH, the Sunday lows read as a continuing decline rather than a floor.
- If volume returns to or above its prior 12-week average while prices recover, the light volume here suggests the move had limited participation.
- If ETH continues to fall faster than BTC, the ETH/BTC ratio's 8.14% drop marks a relative shift rather than a broad one.
- If funding turns clearly negative in later weeks, short positions would begin paying longs, a different setup from this week's near-flat rates.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a weaker value; the 9th percentile means only 9% of the 372 weeks were worse
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts