Week of 17 March 2025: Bitcoin gains 4.25% and Ether 6.31% on below-average volume
With the prior week up 2.28% after a 14.36% fall two weeks earlier, how should a modest rebound on trading volume at half its usual level be read?
BTC rose from 82,574.52 to 86,082.50 (+4.25%) and ETH from 1,887.01 to 2,005.99 (+6.31%), with both weekly lows in the same hour on Tuesday 18 March. Dollar volume was 0.49 times BTC's prior twelve-week average and 0.43 times ETH's. BTC is still 20.53% below its 52-week high, ETH 50.91%.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly lows in the same hour, 13:00 UTC on Tuesday 18 March (BTC 81,134.66, ETH 1,872.31), then spent the rest of the week higher. BTC closed at 86,082.50, up 4.25%, in the upper third of its weekly range; ETH closed at 2,005.99, up 6.31%, also in the upper third. The best day for both was Wednesday 19 March (BTC +4.99%, ETH +6.45%) and the worst was Thursday 20 March (BTC -3.02%, ETH -3.51%). BTC's largest hourly move was -1.72% at 15:00 UTC Thursday; ETH's was +2.76% at 11:00 UTC Wednesday. The BTC weekly return ranked at the 70th percentile of 370 weeks of history. But activity was thin: BTC dollar volume of 9.33 billion was 0.49 times its prior twelve-week average, and ETH's 4.86 billion was 0.43 times.
What it does not show. A rising week on light volume does not establish that the buying was durable, or who did it. The data contains no open-interest or order-book figures, so the size and composition of positions behind the move cannot be measured. BTC remains 20.53% below its 52-week high and ETH 50.91%, and the prior four weeks were mixed for BTC (0.15%, -2.07%, -14.36%, 2.28%), so this rebound sits inside a larger decline. Nothing here shows whether 81,134.66 was a lasting low.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the hourly swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was a modest 37.7% for BTC and 48.5% for ETH. A desk would set this week's +4.25% against the prior four weeks, one of which took 14.36% off BTC, and ask whether a gain achieved on roughly half the usual volume carries the same weight as one achieved on heavier turnover. It would also test whether its own fills would have been as clean as the candles imply in thin conditions.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH outperformed by 2.06 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 1.97%. Hourly correlation was 0.73: close, so the two assets generally moved together without moving in lockstep. Funding stayed near zero for both (BTC averaged 0.0027% per eight hours, within -0.0018% and 0.0085%), so leverage carried little cost in either direction.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades back below this week's low of 81,134.66 in a later week, this rebound reads as a pause inside the decline rather than a turn.
- If volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while BTC holds above its close of 86,082.50, the gain gains the participation this week lacked.
- If BTC funding rises well above its weekly high of 0.0085% per eight hours, longs begin paying a carry that was absent here.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps rising while hourly correlation stays near 0.73, ETH's outperformance becomes a relative trend rather than a shared move.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts