Week of 25 November 2024: Ether gains 10.31% while Bitcoin slips 0.73% in the same week
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions in the same week, what does the split reveal about relative positioning, and what can price data alone not explain?
BTC fell from 97,900.05 to 97,185.18 (-0.73%) while ETH rose from 3,361.21 to 3,707.61 (+10.31%), an 11.04 percentage-point gap. Hourly correlation between the two was 0.64, a loose reading, and the ETH/BTC ratio gained 11.12%. Both assets bottomed late on Tuesday 26 November.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly lows on Tuesday 26 November: BTC bottomed at 90,791.10 at 20:00 UTC and ETH at 3,252.00 two hours earlier, after BTC had reached its weekly high of 98,871.80 the previous morning. From there they separated. Wednesday 27 November was the best day for both (BTC +4.24%, ETH +9.88%), and ETH kept climbing into Sunday, setting its high of 3,746.80 at 15:00 UTC on 1 December. BTC finished at 97,185.18, 79.1% of the way up its weekly range, while ETH closed at 92.1%. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 80th percentile of the 354 weeks on record for it; BTC's ranked at the 39th. Dollar volume ran 2.12 times the prior twelve-week average for ETH and 1.45 times for BTC. BTC had closed higher in each of the four prior weeks (+1.11%, +16.86%, +11.8%, +8.95%).
What it does not show. Price and volume record where the market moved, not who moved it or why. The data identifies no buyer, no flow and no catalyst. The 11.12% rise in the ETH/BTC ratio shows ETH outperforming, but a ratio can rise because Ether is bought, Bitcoin sold, or both at once. BTC's flat close does not say whether the four-week run stalled or paused.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 45.4% for BTC and 61.3% for ETH, so ETH positions carried roughly a third more hourly risk. A desk would test whether hedges sized on past weeks, when the two assets moved together, held up at a correlation of 0.64, and whether ETH's 15.22% range left room for stops placed near Tuesday's low.
Funding. Perpetual funding stayed positive for both, averaging 0.017% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0171% for ETH, with highs of 0.0312% and 0.0318%. Long positions were paying short ones throughout, a running cost carried by long holders of perpetual futures.
What would change this reading
- If BTC closes a later week above its high of 98,871.80, this week reads as a pause inside its four-week advance rather than a top.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls back towards its Monday level after an 11.12% weekly gain, the divergence was temporary rather than a shift in relative demand.
- If hourly correlation returns above 0.7 in later weeks, the loose 0.64 reading this week will look like an exception that hedges should not be built around.
- If ETH gives back gains while funding stays near 0.0171%, longs that paid to hold through the rise face a cost with no offset.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower return; ETH's 80th percentile means 80% of the 354 recorded weeks were lower
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1; 0.64 is loose
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether divided by the price of Bitcoin, showing which of the two outperformed
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts