Week of 29 July 2024: Bitcoin falls 14.78% and Ether 17.77%, both closing near the week low
When both assets close the week near their lows after a mixed run of prior weeks, how much of the fall came from single days, and what does that say about the trend?
BTC fell from 68,249.88 to 58,161.00 (-14.78%) and ETH from 3,270.16 to 2,688.92 (-17.77%). Both set their weekly lows in the same hour, 17:00 UTC on Sunday 4 August. The returns rank at the 4th and 6th percentiles of 337 recorded weeks.
What the data shows. The week opened near its top. BTC's high of 70,079.99 came on Monday 29 July at 13:00 UTC, and its weekly return ranked at the 4th percentile of the 337 weeks of history recorded, this week included. Both assets closed in the lower third of their ranges: BTC closed at 8.0% of its weekly range and ETH at 7.7%. Losses arrived in steps rather than one shock. BTC's worst day was Friday 2 August (-5.90%), containing its largest hourly move (-3.18% starting 14:00 UTC); ETH's worst day was Sunday 4 August (-7.40%), with its largest hourly move (-3.94%) in the same hour as its low. BTC dollar volume was 1.14 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume was 0.98 times, close to normal.
What it does not show. Prices record the path, not the cause. Nothing here identifies who was selling or whether the selling was forced. The Sunday lows were set in the final hours of the week, so this data cannot say whether they held afterwards. Funding shows the direction of payment in perpetual futures, not the size of the positions behind it.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 58.7% for BTC and 66.8% for ETH. BTC is now 20.95% below its 52-week high and ETH 33.90% below. A desk would compare its stop distances and margin buffers with the -5.90% and -7.40% days rather than with the average week. The prior four weeks were mixed: BTC had three up weeks (8.84%, 12.12%, 0.12%) and one down (-11.01%), while ETH had two of each, so the two assets did not share a single recent drift.
Ether against Bitcoin. Hourly correlation was 0.85, close but below a single series. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 3.51%, so ETH fell further than BTC; the larger weekly move was ETH. That is a modest relative divergence, not a decoupling.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 57,122.77 in a later week, the Sunday close reads as continuation rather than a temporary washout.
- If BTC recovers towards its weekly open of 68,249.88 on volume near the prior twelve-week average, the week reads as a sharp retrace inside a still range-bound market.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling beyond -3.51%, the divergence becomes a trend, which changes which asset carries more of the risk.
- If funding stays positive near 0.0076% per eight hours while prices fall, longs are still paying shorts, a small carry cost on the losing side.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 4th percentile means most recorded weeks were less negative
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether in Bitcoin terms; a falling ratio means Ether is weakening against Bitcoin