Week of 20 May 2024: Ether gains 24.59% while Bitcoin adds 3.37%, a 21-point gap
When one asset rises more than twenty percentage points more than the other in a single week, what can price, volume and funding data establish about the divergence, and where does it stop?
ETH rose from 3,071.20 to 3,826.47 (+24.59%), its 97th-percentile week out of 327, while BTC gained 3.37% to 68,507.67. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 20.53% and the week's hourly correlation was 0.60, labelled loose (below 0.7). ETH volume ran 1.49x its prior 12-week average; BTC volume ran 0.74x, below its own.
What the data shows. Both assets rose, but by very different amounts. BTC went from 66,274.00 to 68,507.67 (+3.37%); ETH from 3,071.20 to 3,826.47 (+24.59%). Both set their weekly low on Monday 20 May at 01:00 UTC. ETH's largest hourly move (+9.21%) came in the hour starting 19:00 UTC on Monday, and Monday was also its best day (+19.23%). ETH reached its high of 3,949.29 on Thursday 23 May at 12:00 UTC and closed in the upper third of its weekly range, 5.93% below its 52-week high. BTC's best day was also Monday (+7.80%), but its high of 71,979 came at 00:00 UTC on Tuesday 21 May and was largely given back; the close sat in the middle third of the range, 6.89% below the 52-week high. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 20.53% and the two moved only loosely together (hourly correlation 0.60, below 0.7). ETH's weekly return ranked at the 97th percentile of 327 weeks. Volume split: ETH dollar volume of 16.38bn was 1.49 times its prior 12-week average, while BTC's 15.26bn was 0.74 times, below its average.
What it does not show. The data records the size and shape of the divergence, not its cause. Nothing here identifies who was buying or selling. A rising ratio does not say whether ETH strength or BTC lagging drove it; both rose in absolute terms. One week cannot say whether the gap persists or closes.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's realised volatility, the size of actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, reached 94.6% against BTC's 43.9%, so ETH risk was more than double. A 9.21% hour means stop distances sized on prior weeks may not have filled. BTC's subdued volume against ETH's elevated volume is a second signal a desk would compare before treating the two as one position.
Funding. Both funding averages were small and positive: 0.0102% per eight hours for ETH (max 0.0194%) and 0.0094% for BTC (max 0.0158%). Longs paid shorts, but mildly, so leverage carrying cost was not a visible driver of the week.
What would change this reading
- If BTC closes a later week above its weekly high of 71,979, this week reads as ETH leading inside a rising market rather than BTC lagging.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio surrenders part of its 20.53% gain while ETH funding rises well above 0.0194% per eight hours, the divergence looks more crowded on the long side.
- If hourly correlation returns above 0.7 in later weeks, the two assets move together again and ratio-based hedges regain their usual value.
- If ETH volume falls back below its prior 12-week average while price holds near 3,826.47, the week's participation reading weakens.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 97th percentile means 97% of the 327 prior weeks were lower
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage