Week of 29 April 2024: Bitcoin gains 1.42% while Ether falls 3.89% after a shared midweek low
When Bitcoin and Ether fall to the same hourly low but only one finishes the week higher, what does that divergence say about a broad move turning into a relative one?
BTC rose from 63,118.62 to 64,012.00 (+1.42%) while ETH fell from 3,263.44 to 3,136.41 (-3.89%), a 5.31 percentage-point gap. Both hit their weekly lows at 08:00 UTC on Wednesday 1 May. Volume ran below the prior 12-week average for both assets (BTC 0.88x, ETH 0.74x).
What the data shows. The two assets shared the same low hour: BTC reached 56,552.82 and ETH 2,817.00 at 08:00 UTC on Wednesday 1 May, one hour after the week's largest hourly moves (BTC -3.41%, ETH -2.86%, both in the hour starting 07:00 UTC). From there they separated. BTC's best day was Friday 3 May (+6.47%), and it closed at 91.2% of its weekly range, in the upper third. ETH's best day was the same Friday but smaller (+3.90%), after a worst day of -6.30% on Tuesday 30 April against BTC's -5.00%. Hourly correlation was 0.90, yet the ETH/BTC ratio fell 5.23%, so the week was a broad dip followed by a Bitcoin-led recovery. Both closes sat well below the 52-week highs: BTC by 13.0%, ETH by 22.9%.
What it does not show. The candles do not say why Ether lagged, who was selling, or whether the gap will persist. Volume was below its prior 12-week average for both assets (0.88x for BTC, 0.74x for ETH), so the week's moves happened on lighter activity than usual. That limits what can be inferred about conviction behind either leg. The data also ends on Sunday and says nothing about what followed.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's +1.42% ranks at the 55th percentile of 324 weeks, ETH's -3.89% at the 28th: neither extreme, but the divergence is the notable fact, not the level. The four prior weeks were all down for BTC (-2.69%, -5.33%, -1.10%, -2.81%), so this is the first up week in that stretch, and a desk would ask whether the recovery holds rather than assume a turn. Realised volatility, the size of the actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was nearly identical (BTC 69.1%, ETH 68.7%), so position sizing calibrated on one asset carried roughly the same risk on the other.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ratio change of -5.23% is the week's clearest relative signal. It came despite similar hourly correlation, which means the two moved together hour to hour but Ether moved further down. A desk would treat the ratio, not the individual returns, as the item to monitor.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further after this week's -5.23%, the divergence is extending rather than closing.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 56,552.82, the Wednesday recovery loses its base.
- If ETH closes a later week above its open of 3,263.44, the -3.89% reads as one weak week rather than a persistent lag.
- If volume for either asset stays below its prior 12-week average while the range stays near 14.47% for BTC or 16.68% for ETH, wide moves on thin activity remain the pattern.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin
- close location
- where the closing price sits between the week's low and high; 91.2% means near the top of the range
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage