Week of 7 August 2023: both assets rise slightly on volume below the 12-week average
When a quiet week closes near the middle of its range on weak volume, what can the price data say about conviction, and what can it not say?
BTC rose 0.74% (29,088.43 to 29,303.84) and ETH 0.57% (1,830.28 to 1,840.73). Both set their lows on Monday and highs on Tuesday 21:00 UTC, then went sideways. Dollar volume ran at 0.72 times (BTC) and 0.55 times (ETH) the prior 12-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed first: BTC's low of 28,701.03 and ETH's of 1,802.00 came at 16:00 UTC on Monday 7 August, and both weekly highs (30,244.00 and 1,876.51) arrived at 21:00 UTC on Tuesday 8 August. From there the week drifted; the best day for both was Tuesday (BTC +1.91%, ETH +1.49%). The largest hourly moves were small and negative (BTC -0.83%, ETH -0.64%), and both closes sat in the middle third of their weekly ranges. The two moved closely but not identically (hourly correlation 0.85), and the ETH/BTC ratio slipped just 0.17%, so neither asset led in any meaningful way.
What it does not show. Weak volume cannot tell us whether trading interest was absent or whether buyers and sellers simply matched each other. The data has no order-book or open-interest figures, so the depth behind Tuesday's high is unknown. It also does not say whether the four prior weeks, three of them down, established a direction that this week continued or merely paused.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 19.8% for BTC and 18.1% for ETH, so risk sized for calmer history would still have been reasonable. A desk would note that the week's low sat only 1.35% (BTC) and 1.57% (ETH) below the open, leaving little room between entry and stop for anyone buying Monday's dip.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.009% per eight hours, with a high of 0.01% and a low of 0.0046%; ETH averaged 0.0067%, with a high of 0.01% and a low of 0.0007%. Longs paid shorts throughout, but the data holds no funding figures for earlier weeks, so this level cannot be judged high or low against prior history.
What would change this reading
- If volume stays below its 12-week average while price holds above this week's BTC low of 28,701.03, the quiet tone reads as consolidation rather than distribution.
- If a later week trades above the Tuesday high of 30,244.00 on heavier volume, the week's drift becomes a base rather than a pause.
- If funding rises well above 0.01% per eight hours without price progress, longs would be paying more for a market that is not advancing.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin, showing which of the two gained or lost ground