Week of 10 July 2023: Ether gains 3.18% while Bitcoin closes in the lower third of its range
When both assets rise for the week but most of the move is made and reversed within two days on thin volume, what does the close actually say about the trend?
BTC rose 0.24% to 30,231.99 and ETH 3.18% to 1,922.11, both after a Thursday surge that Friday partly reversed. Volume was below the prior twelve-week average for both. BTC closed at 17.4% of the weekly range, in the lower third, and 4.35% below its 52-week high.
What the data shows. Both assets rose for the week, but nearly the whole move was made in two days and then partly given back. BTC opened at 30,160.71 and closed at 30,231.99 (+0.24%), having reached a high of 31,804.20 at 19:00 UTC on Thursday 13 July and a low of 29,900.00 at 19:00 UTC on Friday 14 July. ETH's path differed: it set its low of 1,846.63 in the week's first hour on Monday 10 July, rose to a high of 2,029.11 at 01:00 UTC on Friday 14 July, and closed the week at 1,922.11 (+3.18%). Thursday was the best day for both (BTC +3.54%, ETH +7.09%) and Friday the worst (BTC -3.63%, ETH -3.33%). ETH beat BTC by 2.94 percentage points, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio by 2.94%. The two moved closely but not in lockstep (hourly correlation 0.79). Dollar volume was below the prior twelve-week average for both, at 0.91 times for BTC and 0.81 times for ETH.
What it does not show. The data cannot say why Thursday's rise or Friday's reversal happened, or who was trading. Thin volume alongside a wide range tells us fewer dollars moved the price, but not whether participation was absent or one-sided. The close tells us where price ended, not whether that level will hold.
What a careful desk would check. BTC closed at 17.4% of the weekly range, in the lower third, while ETH closed at 41.4%, nearer the middle. A weekly gain that ends near the low of its own range reads differently from one that holds near the high. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 33.9% for BTC and 41.0% for ETH, against a weekly range of 6.37% and 9.88%. BTC's weekly return ranked at the 46th percentile of the 282 weeks of history recorded, and ETH's at the 58th, so neither week was unusual by past standards. BTC finished 4.35% below its 52-week high and ETH 9.68% below its own.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0044% per eight hours, with a high of 0.01% and a low of -0.0073%. ETH averaged 0.0058%, between -0.0046% and 0.01%. Slightly positive funding means long positions paid short ones on average, but the rates are near zero, so no strong crowding on either side is visible.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below 29,900.00 in a later week, the Friday low reads as a level that gave way rather than a floor.
- If volume returns above its prior twelve-week average while price holds above Thursday's high of 31,804.20, the week reads as a pause inside a broader move rather than a failed one.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back its 2.94% gain, this week's outperformance reads as a short-lived divergence rather than a shift in the relative trend.
- If funding moves further above zero while the close stays in the lower third of the range, longs are paying to hold a position that is no longer rising.
Terms
- close location
- where the weekly close fell within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage from the low
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset gained more