Week of 26 June 2023: Ether gains 2.04% while Bitcoin closes up 0.51% on quiet volume
When both assets rise modestly on below-average volume, what does the difference in where each closed within its weekly range suggest about relative pressure?
BTC rose 0.51% to 30,617.03 and ETH 2.04% to 1,937.48, a 1.53 percentage-point gap. Both assets fell hardest in the same hour on Friday 30 June (-2.82% BTC, -2.69% ETH). Volume ran below prior twelve-week averages, and funding stayed slightly positive.
What the data shows. BTC ranged 6.04% from its low of 29,500.00 to its high of 31,282.00, both set on Friday 30 June — the high at 04:00 UTC and the low at 13:00 UTC, nine hours apart. The largest hourly move (-2.82%) landed in that same 13:00 UTC hour. ETH followed a different order: its low of 1,816.56 came on Wednesday 28 June and its high of 1,959.20 on Sunday 2 July, so it climbed into the week's close. ETH also posted the better daily result (Friday, +4.42%) against BTC's best day (+1.40% on Tuesday 27 June). The two moved closely, with an hourly correlation of 0.84, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 1.52%. Volume was 0.96 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.93 for ETH.
What it does not show. Closing locations differ — BTC at 62.7% of its range, ETH at 84.8% — but a candle's position inside a range does not identify who was buying or why. Nothing here measures position size, order-book depth or what followed this week. Realised volatility of 36.1% (BTC) and 47.3% (ETH) describes the swings that happened, not the ones to come.
What a careful desk would check. ETH sat 8.96% below its 52-week high while BTC was 2.00% below, so the same weekly gain represents different distances from prior peaks. With BTC's return at the 48th percentile and ETH's at the 56th of 280 weeks, neither move ranks as unusual. A desk would compare the Friday 13:00 UTC hour, when both assets dropped sharply, against its stop and margin assumptions.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0095% per eight hours, ranging from 0.0046% to 0.01%; ETH averaged 0.0071%, from 0.0012% to 0.01%. Longs paid shorts, but the rates were small.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 29,500.00 in a later week, Friday's middle-of-day drop reads as the start of a leg rather than a single hour.
- If ETH holds above 1,937.48 while the ETH/BTC ratio extends beyond the week's 1.52% gain, the relative strength was not a one-week effect.
- If volume rises well above its 0.96 and 0.93 multiples of the prior twelve-week averages, this week's quiet gains will look like low-participation moves.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's closing price sat within the week's high-low range, in percent
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price