Week of 24 April 2023: Bitcoin gains 5.95% while Ether ends nearly flat
When two assets move together hour by hour but one gains 5.95% and the other 0.43%, what does that gap tell us about the week, and what does it leave open?
BTC rose from 27,590.59 to 29,233.21 (+5.95%) while ETH moved from 1,862.01 to 1,870.09 (+0.43%), a gap of 5.52 percentage points. Both had their largest hourly falls in the hour starting 19:00 UTC on Wednesday 26 April. BTC dollar volume was 0.32 times its prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. BTC rose from 27,590.59 to 29,233.21, a gain of 5.95%. Its low of 26,942.82 came at 17:00 UTC on Monday 24 April, before its high of 30,036.0 at 13:00 UTC on Wednesday 26 April, and the close sat in the upper third of the week's range. ETH opened at 1,862.01 and closed at 1,870.09, up 0.43%. Realised volatility, the swings that actually happened expressed on a yearly basis, was 70.7% for BTC and 67.9% for ETH. BTC dollar volume of 12.78bn was 0.32 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume of 6.51bn was about equal to that average.
What it does not show. The candles record price, not what moved it or who was trading. Low BTC volume means the size of the gain cannot be read as strong participation. Nothing here explains the hour starting 19:00 UTC on Wednesday 26 April, when BTC fell 6.24% and ETH 6.05% in their largest hourly moves of the week. No data covers the days after Sunday 30 April.
What a careful desk would check. BTC closed 26.66% below its 52-week high and ETH 36.73% below theirs. BTC's 5.95% gain ranks at the 75th percentile of the 271 weeks before it, meaning 75% of past weeks were lower. A desk would ask whether a gain earned on 0.32 times normal volume should carry the same weight as one on average volume, and would set risk against the -6.24% hour rather than the weekly return. Funding, the regular payment between long and short holders of perpetual futures, averaged 0.0053% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0055% for ETH.
Ether against Bitcoin. The two moved closely (hourly correlation 0.96), yet BTC outpaced ETH by 5.52 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 5.21%. Both set their highs in the middle of the UTC day (08:00-15:59) on Wednesday 26 April, but BTC set its low on Monday while ETH set its low of 1,785.0 late on Wednesday. ETH closed in the middle third of its week range.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below 26,942.82 in a later week, the Monday low stops reading as the base of the 5.95% gain.
- If ETH regains the 5.21% lost in the ETH/BTC ratio while hourly correlation stays at 0.96 or above, the gap reads as a temporary relative move.
- If BTC dollar volume stays near 0.32 times its prior twelve-week average while price holds above 29,233.21, the week's gain would rest on thin participation.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether divided by the price of Bitcoin, showing which asset held up better
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price