Week of 20 February 2023: both assets fall, with highs early and lows on Saturday
When a week opens, rises to a high on the first day or two, then slides to a low late on Saturday, what does the path say about momentum, and what does it leave unknown?
BTC fell from 24,272.51 to 23,554.85 (-2.96%) and ETH from 1,679.74 to 1,641.36 (-2.28%). Both highs came within the first two days and both lows at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 25 February. BTC closed in the lower third of its weekly range; volume ran above the prior 12-week average for both.
What the data shows. BTC reached 25,250.00 at 08:00 UTC on Tuesday 21 February, then worked lower the rest of the week to a low of 22,722.00 at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 25 February, a range of 11.13%. ETH followed the same shape: its high of 1,719.89 came at 11:00 UTC on Monday 20 February and its low of 1,557.33 at the same Saturday hour as BTC. The largest hourly moves were -1.96% for BTC (hour starting 11:00 UTC on Thursday 23 February) and -2.06% for ETH (hour starting 15:00 UTC on Friday 24 February). The two assets moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.92), and ETH lost slightly less, so the ETH/BTC ratio rose 0.69%. Dollar volume was 1.57 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 1.20 times for ETH. Both assets remain far below their 52-week highs: BTC by 50.90% and ETH by 53.69%.
What it does not show. The data records the path, not the reason. Nothing here identifies who traded or why the highs came early and the lows late. Saturday's low does not tell us whether it will hold. The four prior weeks split evenly — two up, two down, with returns of 4.56%, -3.41%, -5.01% and 11.43% — so this week does not by itself establish a new direction.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's close sat 32.9% into the week's range, in the lower third, which means the week gave back more than all of its early gain by the close. ETH closed nearer the middle (51.7%). A desk would compare realised volatility (43.3% annualised for BTC, 47.0% for ETH) with position sizing and ask whether stops set near the Tuesday high would have survived the Thursday hour of -1.96%.
Funding. Perpetual funding stayed near flat: BTC averaged 0.0067% per eight hours, with a minimum of -0.0000%, and ETH averaged 0.0076%. Slightly positive funding means longs paid shorts by a small margin, consistent with mild long-side interest rather than crowding.
What would change this reading
- If price trades back above this week's BTC high of 25,250.00, the slide reads as a pullback inside a range rather than a turn.
- If a later week closes below the Saturday low of 22,722.00, the lower-third close becomes a warning rather than a pause.
- If funding rises well above 0.01% while price falls back towards the low, long-side positioning is becoming a cost without a reward.
- If ETH keeps losing less than BTC, the ratio gain of 0.69% extends and the hedge choice between the two changes.
Terms
- close location
- where the weekly close sits between the week's low and high; a low percentage means the close was near the low
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage