Week of 23 January 2023: Bitcoin gains 4.56% while Ether adds only 1.06%
When both assets rise but one lags by three and a half points, what does the week's price path say about the advance, and what can it not say?
BTC rose from 22,706.02 to 23,742.30 (+4.56%) and ETH from 1,627.43 to 1,644.72 (+1.06%). Both made their low at 01:00 UTC on Wednesday 25 January and their high at 19:00 UTC on Sunday 29 January, closing in the upper third of the week range.
What the data shows. BTC rose from 22,706.02 to 23,742.30, a 4.56% gain. ETH rose from 1,627.43 to 1,644.72, only 1.06%, so BTC outperformed by 3.5 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio, the price of one Ether in Bitcoin terms, fell 3.35%. Both assets made their low at 01:00 UTC on Wednesday 25 January and their high at 19:00 UTC on Sunday 29 January. The low came before the high, and both closed in the upper third of the week range (BTC at 86.9%, ETH at 89.2%). Dollar volume stood above the prior twelve-week average for both: 44.78bn for BTC, 1.43 times that average, and 5.47bn for ETH, 1.12 times. The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.88). Realised volatility, the size of the actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 45.2% for BTC and 55.8% for ETH. The largest hourly move reached a magnitude of 2.85% for BTC and 2.37% for ETH, both in the hour starting 21:00 UTC on Wednesday 25 January.
What it does not show. The candles record that Ether lagged, not why. The data identifies no buyers or sellers, and no open-interest or order-book figures are present, so the size of any position behind the lag cannot be measured. Nothing here indicates what follows.
What a careful desk would check. Three of the prior four weeks were up for both assets, including +21.86% and +8.79% for BTC. This week's +4.56% ranks at the 69th percentile of the 258 weeks on record, so the advance continued at a slower pace. BTC still sat 50.51% below its 52-week high and ETH 53.60% below its own.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.01% per eight hours, with a minimum of 0.0095% and a maximum of 0.01%; ETH averaged 0.01%, ranging from 0.01% to 0.0104%. Positive funding means long positions in perpetual contracts paid short ones, a small running cost through the week.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further in later weeks, this week's 3.35% drop reads as the start of a persistent divergence rather than a single week.
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 22,300.00, the advance from Wednesday's low is undone and the upper-third close looks less durable.
- If funding rises well above 0.01% per eight hours while prices stall, the cost of holding longs becomes a larger share of the trade.
- If the next week's volume falls back below the prior twelve-week average, this week's activity may have been a burst rather than a new level.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 69th percentile means 69% of the 258 recorded weeks were lower