Week of 2 January 2023: both assets rise while volume sits well below its 12-week average
When prices grind higher on weak volume after several down weeks, how much can a single week of price data tell us about whether the trend has actually turned?
BTC rose from 16,617.17 to 17,127.83 (+3.07%) and ETH from 1,200.33 to 1,290.16 (+7.48%). Both closed in the upper third of their weekly ranges, with lows on Monday and highs on Sunday. Dollar volume ran at 0.61x (BTC) and 0.45x (ETH) of the prior 12-week averages.
What the data shows. Both assets made their weekly low in the same hour: 16,548.70 for BTC and 1,193.00 for ETH at 01:00 UTC on Monday 2 January. Both then rose through the week to a high in the final hour on Sunday 8 January (17,176.99 and 1,296.00), so the low came before the high and the close sat near the top: close location 92.2% for BTC and 94.3% for ETH. The largest hourly moves were small (+0.97% for BTC, +1.63% for ETH) and both landed in that Sunday hour. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 16.6% for BTC and 27.6% for ETH. The two moved closely (hourly correlation 0.90), but ETH gained more, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 4.28%. The prior four weeks had been mostly down (3 of 4 down for BTC).
What it does not show. Volume was the weak point of the move: 18.71 billion dollars for BTC (0.61x the prior 12-week average) and 2.33 billion for ETH (0.45x). Low volume does not tell us whether buyers were absent or sellers simply stopped. The data cannot say who traded, why, or whether the Sunday high holds.
What a careful desk would check. A weekly return at the 63rd percentile for BTC and 73rd for ETH over 255 weeks is ordinary, not exceptional. Both assets still sat about 64% below their 52-week highs. A desk would ask whether later weeks confirm with higher volume and a break above 17,176.99, or whether this reads as a drift inside a range.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged +0.0052% per eight hours, with a minimum of -0.0044%; ETH averaged +0.0076% and never went negative (minimum +0.0009%). Longs paid shorts slightly, at a level consistent with a mild upward bias rather than heavy crowding.
What would change this reading
- If volume returns towards its 12-week average while price holds above this week's close of 17,127.83, the move gains participation a careful desk would want to see.
- If a later week trades below the Monday low of 16,548.70, this week reads as a range bounce rather than a bottom.
- If ETH keeps outpacing BTC and the ratio rises again, the relative move has become its own story rather than a shared one.
- If funding turns clearly negative while price holds, the mild long bias of this week has reversed.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the weekly close fell between the week's low and high; 92% means near the top
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts