Week of 24 October 2022: Ether gains 16.58% while Bitcoin rises 5.4%
When Ether rises far more than Bitcoin in the same week, what does the week's price data say about where the strength came from, and what can it not settle about why?
BTC rose from 19,570.4 to 20,627.48 (+5.4%) and ETH from 1,364.19 to 1,590.44 (+16.58%), so the ETH/BTC ratio gained 10.61%. Both set their weekly lows at 14:00 UTC on Monday 24 October and closed in the upper third of their ranges. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 91st percentile of the 245 weeks recorded.
What the data shows. Both assets fell to their weekly lows in the same hour, 14:00 UTC on Monday 24 October (BTC 19,157.0, ETH 1,324.17), and then rose. BTC reached its high of 21,085.0 at 10:00 UTC on Saturday 29 October; ETH reached 1,663.06 at 17:00 UTC that Saturday. The low came before the high in both cases. Best day was Tuesday 25 October for both (BTC +3.88%, ETH +8.64%), worst day Thursday 27 October (BTC -2.29%, ETH -3.32%). ETH's return exceeded BTC's by 11.18 percentage points, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 10.61%. Hourly correlation was 0.9, so the two moved together even as their sizes differed. Volume was above the prior twelve-week average: 1.17 times for BTC ($41.18bn) and 1.22 times for ETH ($9.23bn).
What it does not show. The data records prices and volumes, not motives. It cannot say why Ether moved more, who traded, or whether the ratio shift would persist. Neither asset approached its 52-week high: BTC closed 69.95% below it, ETH 67.19%, so this week's strength sits inside a much larger decline.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the swings actually observed scaled to a yearly figure, was 37.9% for BTC and 71.4% for ETH. ETH's weekly range was 25.59% against BTC's 10.06%, and its largest hourly move (3.76%, Tuesday 25 October at 17:00 UTC) was more than twice BTC's (1.6%, Wednesday 26 October at 08:00 UTC). Risk sized on BTC alone would have understated ETH's swings.
Ether against Bitcoin. The 10.61% ratio gain came with correlation at 0.9, which reads as ETH amplifying a shared move rather than separating from it. Funding averaged positive (BTC 0.0031%, ETH 0.0049% per eight hours), so long holders paid short holders on average. The lowest 8-hour readings were negative (BTC -0.0026%, ETH -0.0056%), meaning shorts paid longs at some points during the week.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls back in later weeks, this week's 10.61% gain reads as a short-lived stretch rather than a shift in relative demand.
- If BTC later trades above 21,085.0, the Saturday high was a pause rather than the week's ceiling.
- If ETH's weekly range stays near 25.59% while BTC's stays near 10.06%, the volatility gap is a standing feature and not this week's alone.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, running from -1 to 1
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts