Week of 10 October 2022: Bitcoin and Ether drift lower on volume below the 12-week average
When both assets end a week almost where they started, on thin volume and far below their highs, what does that quietness actually tell a desk about positioning and risk?
BTC fell -0.91% (19,439.96 to 19,262.98) and ETH -1.30% (1,323.13 to 1,305.95), moving in the same direction with 0.93 hourly correlation. Both hit their low on Thursday 13 October before recovering. Dollar volume was 0.91 times BTC's and 0.47 times ETH's prior 12-week average, and funding stayed near zero.
What the data shows. BTC's weekly range was 9.69% (low 18,190.00 Thursday 12:00 UTC, high 19,951.87 Friday 01:00 UTC), with the low arriving before the high. ETH's range was wider at 12.87% (low 1,190.00, high 1,343.12, also Thursday low then Friday high). Both assets fell most on Monday 10 October (BTC -1.58%, ETH -2.50%) and both set their best day later: Thursday for BTC (+1.15%), Sunday for ETH (+2.43%). BTC closed in the middle third of its range (60.9%); ETH closed in the upper third (75.7%). The ETH/BTC ratio barely moved (-0.39%), so this was a shared move rather than one asset decoupling.
What it does not show. Volume below the prior 12-week average (0.91 times for BTC, 0.47 for ETH) shows limited trading activity, but not why. The data cannot say whether low volume reflects balance or simple absence of participants. It also cannot identify who traded, or whether the Thursday low would hold. A small weekly return at the 40th percentile for BTC and 43rd for ETH across 243 weeks is a middle-of-the-pack week, not a turning point on its own.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility (the size of actual price swings, scaled to a yearly figure) was 45.2% for BTC and 54.1% for ETH, and the largest hourly moves were 2.95% and 3.00%. A desk would ask whether its risk limits, calibrated on more active weeks, are sized for a market this quiet, and whether thin volume means positions could be harder to exit in size than these ranges suggest.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0069% per eight hours, all of it positive (min 0.0005%, max 0.01%). ETH's average was 0.0018%, with a low reading of -0.0182% and a high of 0.01%. Slightly positive funding means longs paid shorts, but the magnitudes are small enough to describe as balanced rather than crowded.
What would change this reading
- If volume rises above its 12-week average in a later week while price holds near 19,262.98, the quiet week reads as a pause before participation returned.
- If BTC trades below the Thursday low of 18,190.00, the mid-week dip reads as the start of a further leg rather than a recovered wick.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio shifts after weeks near -0.39%, the shared move has become a relative one, which changes which hedge matters.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; 40 means 40% of the 243 prior weeks were lower