Week of 18 April 2022: Bitcoin ends 0.57% lower after an 11.52% range
When prices swing more than 10% across a week yet finish nearly flat, what does the path of that swing reveal, and what remains unknown about who was behind it?
BTC moved -0.57% (39,678.11 to 39,450.13) and ETH -2.24% (2,988.07 to 2,921.00) inside ranges of 11.52% and 10.29%. Both hit lows early Monday, highs Thursday, then closed in the lower third of their ranges. Volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both.
What the data shows. BTC swung from a Monday low of 38,536.51 to a Thursday high of 42,976.00, a range of 11.52%, yet closed the week at 39,450.13, just 0.57% below its open of 39,678.11. ETH followed the same path (correlation 0.92): a Monday low of 2,883.22, a Thursday high of 3,180.00, and a close of 2,921.00 (-2.24%). The lows came early Monday UTC, the highs mid-Thursday, and both closes sat in the lower third of the week's range (BTC 20.6%, ETH 12.7%). The largest hourly move for both assets, -2.50% for BTC and -2.77% for ETH, came in the same hour starting 04:00 UTC on Monday. Dollar volume was below its prior twelve-week average for both (BTC 0.89 times, ETH 0.85 times). Realised volatility, the size of the actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 44.1% for BTC and 50.1% for ETH. BTC sat 42.52% below its 52-week high, ETH 39.73% below. ETH lost more than BTC, so the ETH/BTC ratio fell 1.68%.
What it does not show. The path is clear, the cause is not. Price candles identify neither who traded nor why the Thursday high reversed into a lower-third close. Below-average volume and slightly negative funding do not establish whether the week's sellers were forced or opportunistic, and nothing here indicates what the following week held.
What a careful desk would check. A week can carry an 11.5% range and end near its open, which means a position marked at the open and one marked at the close tell very different stories about the same week. A desk would ask whether stops set near Monday's low of 38,536.51 survived the opening hours, when the largest hourly drop occurred, and whether Thursday's high was reachable only in hindsight. With volume below its twelve-week average, a wider range does not necessarily imply deeper liquidity.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged -0.0034% per eight hours, with a low of -0.0183%; ETH averaged -0.0036%, low -0.0172%. Negative rates mean short positions were paying long ones on average, a mild tilt rather than a crowded one.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes back above BTC's weekly high of 42,976.00, this week's reversal reads as a pause rather than a renewed decline.
- If BTC trades below the Monday low of 38,536.51 on higher volume than the week's 0.89-times average, the low was a step down rather than support.
- If funding stays negative while prices rise, shorts are paying to hold and the balance of positioning may be shifting.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's closing price sat within its high-to-low range, as a percentage from the low
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; negative means shorts pay longs