Week of 28 March 2022: Ether gains 6.87% while Bitcoin slips 0.9%
When two assets moved together hour by hour but finished the week a 7.77-point gap apart, how much of that gap came from a single day, and what does it mean for anyone hedging one with the other?
BTC fell from 46,827.76 to 46,407.35 (-0.9%) while ETH rose from 3,295.65 to 3,521.91 (+6.87%), a 7.77-point gap. Both hit their weekly low at 02:00 UTC on Friday 1 April, and Friday was ETH's best day (+5.29%). Hourly correlation stayed at 0.90.
What the data shows. The two assets shared a path for most of the week. BTC's high of 48,189.84 came late in the UTC day, at 19:00 UTC on Monday 28 March, and its low of 44,200.00 arrived at 02:00 UTC on Friday 1 April. ETH's low fell in exactly the same hour (3,210.68), but its high came only at 22:00 UTC on Sunday 3 April (3,580.34), so ETH climbed after BTC had stopped. Friday was the pivot: ETH's best day at +5.29% against BTC's +1.7%, following Thursday's worst day for both (BTC -3.31%, ETH -3.08%). Hourly correlation was 0.90, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 7.83%. Volume ran modestly above the prior twelve weeks for both (1.13x BTC, 1.15x ETH). BTC closed 32.38% below its 52-week high, ETH 27.33% below.
What it does not show. Direction over the week is not the same as direction hour by hour: the assets shared the Thursday drop and the Friday low, then separated. Correlation of .90 tells us they usually moved together, not that every hour matched. The data cannot say why ETH kept rising into Sunday while BTC stalled, who was buying, or whether the gap will persist.
What a careful desk would check. A hedge of BTC against ETH assumes the two move together. This week they did for most hours but not over the full week, and a hedge that netted the positions would have lost roughly the 7.77-point gap. A desk would test how its hedge performed day by day rather than in aggregate, and note that both weekly closes sat near the middle-to-upper part of their ranges (BTC at 55.3%, ETH at 84.2%), which offers no clear signal of exhaustion in either direction.
Funding. Perpetual funding was positive and tight for both: BTC averaged 0.0098% per eight hours (range 0.0076% to 0.01%), ETH 0.0099% (0.0083% to 0.01%). Longs paid shorts, but the cost was small, so nothing here suggests heavy crowding on either side.
What would change this reading
- If ETH keeps outperforming BTC in later weeks while hourly correlation stays near 0.90, the divergence reads as rotation within a common market rather than a break in the relationship.
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 44,200.00, Thursday's drop becomes the start of a leg down rather than a one-day move.
- If ETH closes a later week back near 3,295.65, Sunday's high reads as a temporary extension built on one strong Friday.
- If funding for either asset rises far above 0.01% per eight hours, the mild long-side cost of this week will have changed.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- perpetual funding
- a periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts
- correlation
- how closely two prices move together hour by hour, from -1 to 1