Week of 6 December 2021: Bitcoin gains 1.33% after three down weeks while Ether loses 1.58%
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over a week, and both recover from a shared low, what does the divergence say about where the market's pressure actually sat?
BTC rose from 49,396.32 to 50,053.90 (+1.33%); ETH fell from 4,196.44 to 4,130.00 (-1.58%). Both set their weekly low at 00:00 UTC on Saturday 11 December. BTC volume was 0.72 times its prior 12-week average, ETH 1.05 times.
What the data shows. The two assets ended the week in opposite directions. BTC opened 49,396.32, reached 51,936.33 on Tuesday 7 December, fell to 46,751.00 at 00:00 UTC on Saturday 11 December, and closed at 50,053.90. ETH reached 4,488.00 on Thursday 9 December, then dropped to 3,828.22 in the same Saturday hour as BTC, and closed at 4,130.00. The two lows arriving in the same hour fits their close hourly correlation of 0.89. ETH's weekly return was 2.91 percentage points lower than BTC's, and the ETH/BTC ratio (the price of Ether measured in Bitcoin) fell 2.88%. Thursday 9 December was the worst day for both (BTC -5.80%, ETH -7.47%), and Saturday 11 December the best (BTC +4.77%, ETH +4.90%). BTC volume was 0.72 times its prior 12-week average; ETH's was 1.05 times. BTC ranked at the 49th percentile and ETH at the 38th of the 199 weeks recorded before this one.
What it does not show. The data records prices and volumes, not reasons. It cannot say why ETH underperformed or who sold. A common low hour shows the two markets fell together at that moment; it does not show the same orders caused both. Nothing here indicates what followed the Saturday rebound.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sat 27.07% below its 52-week high and ETH 14.79% below, so ETH was nearer its peak yet posted the lower weekly return. After three down weeks for BTC and two for ETH, a small BTC gain on below-average volume is weak evidence of a turn. A desk would compare the Thursday losses and the Friday hour of -4.08% for ETH against its stop distances before treating the recovery as durable.
Funding. Perpetual funding stayed near flat: BTC averaged 0.0097% per eight hours and ETH 0.0093%, with ETH dipping to -0.001%. Longs paid a negligible carry, so the week's divergence is unlikely to be explained by crowded positioning on either side.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after this week's -2.88%, the divergence reads as the start of a trend rather than one week's rotation.
- If a later week trades below the shared low of 46,751.00 for BTC and 3,828.22 for ETH, the Saturday rebound was a pause.
- If BTC volume returns towards and above its prior 12-week average while price holds above 50,053.90, the case for a turn strengthens.
- If funding turns negative while price holds, longs stop paying and the crowding picture changes.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin and falls when it lags
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 49th percentile means roughly half of the 199 prior weeks were higher
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price