Week of 4 October 2021: Bitcoin gains 13.40% while Ether ends flat, a 13.5 point gap
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over one week, how wide was the split, and what can price data say about whether it persists?
BTC rose from 48,200.01 to 54,659.00 (+13.40%) while ETH went from 3,417.73 to 3,414.22 (-0.10%), a 13.5 percentage point gap. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 11.91%. BTC's return ranked at the 88th percentile of 190 weeks of history, on volume 1.41 times its prior 12-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets made their weekly low in the same hour, 15:00 UTC on Monday 4 October (BTC 46,891.00, ETH 3,270.00). From there they separated. BTC's high of 56,561.31 came only on Sunday 10 October at 20:00 UTC, while ETH peaked earlier, at 3,695.00 on Friday 8 October at 08:00 UTC, and then fell 4.49% on Sunday, its worst day. BTC's best day was Wednesday 6 October at +7.47%, which also carried its largest hourly move (+2.80%). BTC closed at 80.3% of its weekly range, in the upper third; ETH closed at 33.9%, in the middle third. Hourly correlation between the two was 0.85, still close, so the gap came from magnitude and timing rather than one asset ignoring the other.
What it does not show. The candles record where prices went, not why they diverged. Nothing here identifies which flows or which participants drove BTC higher while ETH went nowhere. A flat weekly return of -0.10% for ETH also hides a 13.00% range between low and high, so a quiet close sat on top of an active week. The data cannot say whether the 11.91% ratio move reverses or continues.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's realised volatility of 59.6% annualised sat below ETH's 71.2%, despite ETH's smaller weekly return. The four prior weeks were mixed for BTC (-11.07%, 2.64%, -8.64%, 11.68%), so this was the second strong week in a choppy stretch rather than the start of a clean run. A desk would test hedges sized on the assumption that the two assets move together, since a 13.5 point weekly gap breaks that assumption.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH/BTC fell 11.91%. ETH dollar volume of 11.71 billion ran below its prior 12-week average (0.90 times), while BTC volume of 22.58 billion ran above its own (1.41 times). The data shows the two markets traded with different levels of activity relative to their own recent history; it does not show which of them caused the ratio move.
What would change this reading
- If ETH/BTC stops falling in later weeks after an 11.91% drop, the split reads as a one-week rotation rather than a lasting change.
- If BTC holds above this week's open of 48,200.01, the 88th-percentile weekly gain is more likely the start of a trend than a spike.
- If ETH volume returns above its prior 12-week average while BTC volume fades, the leadership question reverses.
- If funding holds at or above its 0.0136% eight-hour average on both assets, longs keep paying a modest carry on positions that have already diverged.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 88th percentile means 88% of the 190 prior weeks were lower
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage