Week of 13 September 2021: Bitcoin gains 2.64% while Ether loses 2.22%
When Bitcoin rises 2.64% and Ether falls 2.22% in the same week, what does the split say about how closely the two markets were actually moving?
BTC rose from 46,025.23 to 47,241.75 (+2.64%) while ETH fell from 3,404.3 to 3,328.62 (-2.22%), a gap of 4.86 percentage points. Both set their weekly low at 14:00 UTC on Monday 13 September. Dollar volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both assets.
What the data shows. BTC rose from 46,025.23 to 47,241.75 (+2.64%) while ETH fell from 3,404.3 to 3,328.62 (-2.22%). Both set their weekly lows at 14:00 UTC on Monday 13 September, in the same hour as their largest hourly moves (-4.78% for BTC, -4.00% for ETH), and in both cases the low came before the high. BTC then reached 48,843.20 at 05:00 UTC on Saturday 18 September and closed in the upper third of its 12.62% weekly range. ETH reached 3,676.28 at 04:00 UTC on Thursday 16 September but closed in the middle third of its 18.27% range. Dollar volume was 13.56bn for BTC and 10.05bn for ETH, or 0.79 and 0.77 times their prior twelve-week averages.
What it does not show. The candles record direction and size, not reason. Nothing here explains why BTC ended higher and ETH lower, or who was trading. The funding rate (a periodic payment between long and short holders of perpetual futures) averaged 0.01% per eight hours and never left that level, so it reveals no sign of crowding on either side.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 64.4% for BTC and 83.5% for ETH. ETH's wider range means a position sized on BTC's week would have sat less comfortably in ETH. BTC's worst day (-2.36% on 13 September) came right before its best (4.83% on 14 September), and both sit inside a week that also produced a Saturday high. Both assets traded on below-average volume, so the divergence emerged with less turnover than the prior twelve weeks.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio, the price of Ether measured in Bitcoin, fell 4.74%, and ETH trailed BTC by 4.86 percentage points. Hourly correlation, how closely the two prices moved hour by hour, stayed close at 0.88, so the gap came from ETH moving more within a shared path rather than the assets parting company. BTC ended 26.84% below its 52-week high, ETH 23.18% below its own.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes above 48,843.20, this week's BTC gain reads as the start of a recovery rather than a pause 26.84% below the 52-week high.
- If ETH trails BTC by more than the 4.86 percentage points recorded here, the divergence is a trend rather than a single week.
- If volume returns above its prior twelve-week average while the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling, the relative move is drawing participation.
- If funding stays fixed at 0.01% per eight hours, leverage costs say nothing about positioning and price alone carries the signal.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether measured in Bitcoin, showing which asset held up better
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1