Week of 24 May 2021: both assets rebound, Ether up 13.8% against Bitcoin's 2.8%
After two falling weeks, what does a joint rebound with an 11.03-point gap between Ether and Bitcoin suggest about relative momentum, and what can this week's data not settle?
BTC rose from 34,681.44 to 35,641.27 (+2.77%) and ETH from 2,096.63 to 2,385.98 (+13.8%). Both assets posted their best day on Monday 24 May (BTC +11.86%, ETH +26.32%). Both remain about 44.8% below their 52-week highs, and both closed well below their weekly highs.
What the data shows. The four weeks before this one were mixed for both assets (BTC: +15.31%, +2.94%, -20.28%, -25.36%; ETH: +27.11%, +33.05%, -8.71%, -41.47%), with the two most recent falling, so this week was a rebound. Both rallied early and gave ground back: BTC set its high of 40,841 on Wednesday 26 May at 08:00 UTC, then its low of 33,379 only on Sunday 30 May at 00:00 UTC, closing at 35,641.27 in the lower third of its 22.36% weekly range. ETH made its low on Monday 24 May (2,079.94), its high on the same Wednesday hour as BTC (2,910), and closed at 2,385.98 in the middle third of a 39.91% range. Dollar volume was 29.22 billion for BTC (about equal to its prior twelve-week average) and 28.06 billion for ETH (1.53 times its average). The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.90).
What it does not show. A weekly close below the weekly high does not say whether the fade was profit-taking, fresh selling, or both. The data has no open-interest or order-book figures, so it cannot size any position behind the move. Realised volatility of 117.9% for BTC and 175.6% for ETH describes the swings that happened, not where the market goes next.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 85th percentile of the 171 weeks recorded; BTC's at the 57th, so the aggregate move was ordinary while the relative move was not. A desk would ask whether its sizing survived the 39.91% ETH range and would treat funding of 0.0078% (BTC) and 0.01% (ETH) per eight hours as evidence of little crowding in either direction.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 10.74%, and ETH beat BTC by 11.03 percentage points, so the week was led by Ether rather than by a uniform move.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's BTC low of 33,379, the Monday-to-Wednesday rally reads as a pause inside the decline rather than a turn.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 10.74% gain while both assets fall together, the outperformance was rotation rather than a lasting shift.
- If realised volatility stays near 117.9% for BTC with volume at 1.0 times its twelve-week average, the market remains unsettled without directional confirmation.
- If funding for BTC drops back towards its weekly low of -0.0099% per eight hours, the cost of holding either side is falling and crowding is not building.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, which rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin