Week of 29 March 2021: Ether rises 23% while Bitcoin adds 4%, a gap of 18.68 points
When Ether and Bitcoin separate by nearly nineteen percentage points in one week, what does the price data say about where the strength sat, and what can it not say about why?
BTC gained 4.35% (55,777.65 to 58,202.01) while ETH gained 23.03% (1,687.16 to 2,075.69). The ETH/BTC ratio rose 17.9%. Trading volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both assets, and funding stayed positive throughout, averaging 0.0798% per eight hours for ETH.
What the data shows. BTC set its weekly low of 54,800.01 at 06:00 UTC on Monday 29 March and its high of 60,200.00 at 02:00 UTC on Friday 2 April, a range of 9.85%. It closed the week 5.59% below its 52-week high. ETH followed the same broad shape but moved much further: its low of 1,677.85 came at 01:00 UTC on Monday and its high of 2,146.00 at 23:00 UTC on Friday, a range of 27.90%. ETH closed 2.72% below its 52-week high and at 85% of the week's range, against 63% for BTC. Both assets had their worst day on Saturday 3 April (BTC -3.22%, ETH -5.87%). Dollar volume was 0.78 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.71 for ETH. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 95th percentile of the 163 weeks on record; BTC's at the 65th.
What it does not show. The candles record the size of the separation, not its cause. Nothing here identifies who was buying ETH or whether the move reflects a durable change in demand. Volume below the prior twelve-week average means fewer dollars changed hands than that average, which limits what can be inferred about conviction. The Saturday decline does not tell us whether it was the start of a larger reversal.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened, was 67.9% annualised for ETH against 49.3% for BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 17.9% over the week, so a position written at the start of the week long BTC against ETH would have lost roughly that much in relative terms. The hourly correlation of 0.64 means the two prices moved together often but far from always, so hedges between them would have been imperfect during the week.
Funding. Funding stayed positive all week for both, averaging 0.0632% per eight hours for BTC (high 0.1093%) and 0.0798% for ETH (high 0.1569%). Positive rates mean holders of long positions paid holders of short positions at each eight-hour setting; the data does not show who held those positions or how large they were.
What would change this reading
- If a later week shows the ETH/BTC ratio falling back below this week's gain of 17.9%, the separation reads as a single-week event rather than a shift in the relationship.
- If ETH funding keeps rising above its 0.1569% eight-hour high while price stalls, the cost of staying long becomes worth measuring against the position's edge.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 54,800.01, the week's 4.35% gain reads as a pause inside a broader decline.
- If volume returns towards the twelve-week average in later weeks, this week's move on light volume reads as thin trading rather than broad participation.
Terms
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1; 0.64 means they moved together often but far from always
- close location
- where the closing price sits within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage; 85% means it closed near the top
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts